类权益周报：曙光已现-20260208

Market Overview - The class equity market experienced fluctuations and corrections from February 2 to 6, with the Wande All A closing at 6682.47, down 1.49% from January 30[1] - The trading volume on February 6 was 2.16 trillion yuan, marking the lowest since the beginning of the year[1] - Financing balances saw a net outflow for six consecutive days, the first occurrence since mid-April 2025, totaling a net outflow of 612 billion yuan from January 30 to February 5[1][16] Trading Strategies - Three trading strategies emerged: low-position rebounds (e.g., liquor, real estate), high-position speculation (e.g., computing hardware), and theme-driven (e.g., AI applications), all facing significant trading difficulties[1][21] - Historical data indicates that extreme volume contraction often precedes market rebounds, with the current contraction nearing the upper limit of the 30%-50% range observed since 2019[2][39] Convertible Bond Insights - Convertible bond valuations have shown an upward trend, with the valuation center for bonds at a par value of 80 yuan rising by 3.27 percentage points to 57.02% as of February 6[3][26] - The current valuation levels for convertible bonds are at historical highs, with estimates indicating that the valuation centers for various par values are in the 99%-100% historical percentile range[3][30] External Market Influences - The U.S. stock market saw a significant rebound on February 6, with the Nasdaq index rising by 2.18%, which may positively influence A-share market sentiment[2][44] - The overall risk appetite in overseas markets has declined, with industrial metals experiencing widespread declines while gold prices showed slight recovery[3][31] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include accelerated rotation in equity market styles and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules[4]