负债行为跟踪：两融资金继续退潮，宽基ETF流出放缓

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the A-share market declined on low volume, with the non-ferrous and TMT sectors leading the decline. The sharp drop in the non-ferrous sector was due to the "squeezing out of water" after the previous high consensus and excessive concentration of leveraged funds. The decline in the TMT sector was affected by the panic spillover from the non-ferrous sector and the lower-than-expected overseas technology performance. However, on Tuesday, most sectors rebounded from oversold conditions, indicating that bottom-fishing funds had started to enter the market [6]. - The characteristics of liability behavior this week include the continued ebb of margin trading funds, the significant slowdown in the outflow of index ETF funds, and the "freezing point" of market sentiment on Monday, followed by some recovery [7][11][12]. - With the release of market sentiment on Monday, the risk of extreme overheating has been alleviated. The market has returned from an overheated state to a rational or even locally oversold range. In the future, the market may face an environment with a narrowing of the main line, accelerated rotation, and increased divergence, but the time for the spring rally may be extended [13]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Asset Performance - Global Assets: This week, A-shares, US technology stocks, and Hong Kong stocks declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3%, the ChiNext Index in A-shares dropped 3.3%, and the STAR 50 Index declined 5.8%. The Nasdaq fell 1.8%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped 3.0%. Global risk aversion increased, and bond markets generally strengthened. Precious metals, led by silver, tumbled, with SHFE silver down 32.7% and SHFE gold down 6.1% for the week. The US dollar index rebounded, but the RMB did not appreciate against the US dollar [17]. - A-share Market: The performance of broad-based indexes was divided. The technology sector declined significantly, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index leading the decline, down 3.3% and 5.8% respectively. The micro-cap index performed well, rising 1.9%, while the other broad-based indexes declined to varying degrees. The trading volume of broad-based indexes decreased significantly, with the average daily trading volume dropping from 3.1 trillion yuan to 2.4 trillion yuan. The trading volume of the entire A-share market decreased daily from Monday to Friday, from 2.6 trillion yuan on Monday to 2.2 trillion yuan on Friday [19][24]. - A-share Industries: The non-ferrous metals (-15.6%) sector led the decline this week, followed by steel (-6.1%), computer (-5.2%), electronics (-4.6%), communication (-3.8%), and media (-3.4%). The top five rising industries were beauty care (2.1%), power equipment (1.7%), transportation (1.7%), comprehensive (1.6%), and light industry manufacturing (1.5%) [31]. 2. ETF Funds - The outflow of index ETF funds slowed down significantly. The average daily net outflow of the CSI 300 ETF decreased from over 14 billion yuan in the previous two weeks to 1.14 billion yuan this week, and there were net inflows on Thursday and Friday. The average daily net outflow of the SSE 50 ETF was 330 million yuan, compared with over 5 billion yuan in the previous two weeks. The average daily net outflows of the CSI 1000 ETF and the CSI 500 ETF also decreased significantly, while the ChiNext and STAR 50 ETFs had net inflows [11][14][41]. 3. Leveraged Funds - The proportion of margin trading turnover decreased from 9.71% last week to 9.32%. The margin trading balance decreased from 2.73 trillion yuan last week to 2.70 trillion yuan, and it decreased daily from Monday to Friday [48]. - From Monday to Thursday, margin trading funds in the constituent stocks of broad-based indexes had a net outflow. Among them, the large-cap stocks such as the CSI 300, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the SSE 50 had a relatively large outflow of margin trading funds. The small and medium-cap and GEM sectors also accelerated their net outflows [50]. - Most industries deleveraged this week. The banking, food and beverage, commercial retail, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial industries had a relatively large deleveraging amplitude. The comprehensive, building decoration, public utilities, and power equipment industries added leverage [56]. - Stocks of all market capitalization gradients deleveraged this week, with stocks with a market capitalization of over 500 billion yuan having a relatively large deleveraging amplitude. Most popular stocks deleveraged, especially non-ferrous and electronic popular stocks [61][65]. 4. Quantitative Funds - In January, the excess returns of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index enhancement products rebounded to positive values, with medians of 0.47% and 0.39% respectively. Since February, the excess returns of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index enhancement products have continued to rebound, with medians of 0.66% and 0.55% respectively [73]. 5. Main Funds - The main funds in the CSI 300, ChiNext, and STAR markets continued to have a net outflow this week, accelerating compared with last week. Specifically, the main funds in the three sectors had a net outflow every day [79]. - This week, the main funds flowed out of most industries, with the electronics industry having the largest outflow, followed by non-ferrous metals and communication. The main funds flowed into the coal and comprehensive sectors [87]. 6. Northbound and Southbound Funds - Northbound Funds: The total trading volume of northbound funds decreased this week, with the average daily trading volume dropping from 389.1 billion yuan to 319.9 billion yuan, and the proportion of A-share trading volume increased from 12.7% to 13.3%. Since December, the trading activity of northbound funds has significantly rebounded [91]. - Southbound Funds: The average daily trading volume of southbound funds increased from 216.3 billion yuan to 220.6 billion yuan, and the proportion increased from 49.0% to 49.4%. The average daily net purchase amount increased from -400 million yuan to 7.9 billion yuan. This week, southbound funds flowed into the banking, non-bank financial, media, and commercial retail sectors in large amounts and flowed out of the electronics and communication industries [93][97].