超长债周报：30年国债收益率创今年新低-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the 1 - month PMI dropped significantly to 49.3, the central bank's treasury bond trading in January increased to 100 billion, precious metals and A - shares fluctuated greatly, the bond market rose sharply again, and the ultra - long bond yield reached a recent low. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, the term spread narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][4][12]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of February 6, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 44BP, at a relatively low historical level. For the 20 - year CDB bond, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at an extremely low historical position. The probability of a near - term bond market correction is high due to factors such as weakened government support and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [2][3][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The 1 - month PMI in January dropped to 49.3, the central bank's treasury bond trading increased to 100 billion, precious metals and A - shares fluctuated, the bond market rose, and the ultra - long bond yield reached a recent low. Trading was very active, the term spread narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][4][12]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bond: As of February 6, the spread was 44BP. The economy's downward pressure eased in December, with a GDP growth rate of about 4.5%, up 0.4% from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9% in December. The bond market is likely to correct due to weakened government support and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2][13]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: As of February 6, the spread was 14BP. Similar economic data as the 30 - year treasury bond. The bond market is likely to correct, and the variety spread is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][14]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.8 trillion. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main ones. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (February 2 - 6, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds soared to 321.9 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the largest share. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance [20]. 3.2.2 This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 159.7 billion yuan, mainly ultra - long local government bonds [24]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a turnover of 1064.4 billion yuan, accounting for 12.2% of all bond turnovers. Compared with the previous week, the turnover and proportion increased [27]. 3.3.2 Yield - The ultra - long bond yield reached a recent low. Yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed. Representative individual bonds also had yield changes [35][36]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - Term Spread: It narrowed last week, with the 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread at 44BP, down 2BP from the previous week, at the 31st percentile since 2010 [44]. - Variety Spread: It widened last week. The 20 - year CDB bond - treasury bond spread was 14BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury bond spread was 21BP, at the 12th and 16th percentiles since 2010 respectively [48]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2603 closed at 112.57 yuan, up 0.58%. The total trading volume was 503,700 lots (76,441 lots), and the open interest was 117,600 lots (- 17,239 lots). The trading volume increased slightly, and the open interest decreased slightly [51].