Huafu Securities·2026-02-08 14:12Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [11]. Core Insights - The introduction of the capacity price mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration marks a significant shift in the new energy storage sector from a policy-driven approach to a market-driven demand approach [3][4]. - The capacity price mechanism is expected to enhance the revenue streams for new energy storage, with a projected capacity price of 165 RMB/k·year leading to compensation income of approximately 17 million RMB for a 100MW/4h independent storage station [4]. - The current market conditions show a recovery in investment willingness as lithium carbonate futures prices have returned to below 150,000 RMB, indicating a stabilization in the supply chain and production rates among leading storage battery manufacturers [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Background and Purpose - The policy aims to promote the full market entry of renewable energy and establish a capacity price mechanism for new energy storage alongside coal and pumped storage [3]. - The experience from mature markets suggests that long-term capacity contracts are crucial for ensuring reasonable internal rate of return (IRR) for new energy storage [3]. Capacity Price Mechanism - The expected capacity price will allow coal power plants to recover fixed costs, with a target of at least 50% recovery [4]. - The reliable capacity is defined as the capacity that can provide stable power supply during peak demand periods, with a reliability coefficient example of 67% for a 4h storage system [4]. Current Status of Energy Storage - The rise in lithium carbonate prices has negatively impacted the investment sentiment, but the situation is improving as prices stabilize [5]. - Leading companies in the energy storage sector are expected to benefit from the surge in overseas demand, which will help mitigate fluctuations in domestic demand [5].