境外权益（港美股）周度策略报告-20260208

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The investment theme of the US stock technology sector in 2026 may be "shrinking the circle", with hardware outperforming software and platforms, and the market favoring companies with a closed - loop business model and more robust financial conditions [3][5]. - In the short term, the risk of US stock earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate defensive value sectors or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic [15][18]. - Under regulatory guidance, Chinese stocks are moving forward steadily in a "slow - bull" market with a "slower slope". It is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped [19][23]. - The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. The current situation may be close to that of 1997 from the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC [37]. Summary by Related Contents US Stocks - Market Performance and Catalysts: The US stock market had a 3 - day consecutive decline this week. The more stringent assessment of the "quality" of the earnings reports of US stock technology giants was the "trigger" for this adjustment. Since last November, the market's narrative on AI investment has shifted from "arms race" to "return on investment" [5]. - Earnings Report Analysis of Tech Giants: The 7 Sisters' guidance on Capex expenditure in 2026 is generally aggressive, almost doubling that of 2025. Google's earnings report exceeded expectations, but the doubling of Capex still caused a decline after the report. Microsoft was under pressure due to the disproportionate increase in cloud business revenue and capital expenditure. The ROIC of the 7 Sisters in Q4 2025 continued to decline, but the decline rate and slope were still controllable [3][9][11]. - Investment Strategy: In the short term, the risk of earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate appropriate value sectors for defense or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. The 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support level for the Nasdaq. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic, with hardware outperforming the 7 Sisters and application software, and Google with a closed - loop business model being more favored [15][16][18]. - AI Bubble Analysis: The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. From the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC, the current situation may be close to that of 1997. It is necessary to dynamically track whether the "ROIC - WACC" at the level of US stock technology giants and indices shows a sharp convergence trend [37]. Chinese Stocks - Market Performance and Influencing Factors: This week, the overall Chinese stock market was volatile and weak, with low - level cyclical and high - dividend sectors leading the rise. The performance of Hong Kong stocks was relatively weaker than that of A - shares, mainly affected by three factors: rumors of VAT adjustment, the anxiety about the subversion of the software ecosystem by Anthropic Claude, and the weak performance of A - shares and US stocks [19][20]. - Investment Strategy: In the short term, it is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced, focusing on high - quality performance lines and supplemented by low - level cyclical and dividend sectors. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped: technology assets with a clear industrial trend supported by policies, some new energy and chemical sectors with "supply - side clearance" and "demand - side improvement", and the non - ferrous sector supported by tight supply, strong structural demand, and catalyzed by interest rate cuts [23]. A - Share Earnings Forecast - The stocks in A - shares with an expected doubling of earnings growth are mainly concentrated in industries such as electronics, basic chemicals, biomedicine, and power equipment. For example, companies like Huisheng Bio, Kemeite Gas, and Xinqianglian are among them [24].