南华期货铁合金周报：下方受到成本支撑，上方受到下游累库压力-20260208

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current contradiction in ferroalloys is the game between cost support and inventory accumulation at the downstream terminals. Silicomanganese is also facing the pressure of high self - inventory, while the manganese ore quotation is firm, resulting in an oscillating pattern with cost support at the bottom and pressure at the top [1]. - On the supply side, ferroalloy profits have recovered but are still in the loss range. The possibility of a significant further reduction in ferroalloy production is low, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly around the current level. Silicoferrite production is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and silicomanganese production is at a medium - low level in the same period in recent years. Silicoferrite production increased by 0.71% week - on - week, and silicomanganese production decreased by 0.72% week - on - week [1]. - On the demand side, steel mill profits are currently good, and the futures profit has strengthened, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge. Subsequently, steel mills may have the motivation to resume and increase production, and hot metal production may rise steadily. However, downstream terminal steel has entered the consumption off - season, the consumption demand has seasonally weakened, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products has accelerated, and the incremental demand for ferroalloys is limited [1]. - In terms of inventory, silicoferrite inventory decreased by 1.53% week - on - week, and silicoferrite warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.38% week - on - week; silicomanganese inventory increased by 0.93% week - on - week, and silicomanganese warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3.32% week - on - week. The silicomanganese inventory base is still large, at the highest level in the past 5 years, with great pressure to reduce inventory, which still requires production cuts. The increase in the number of warehouse receipts also exerts a certain pressure on the futures market [1]. - In the short term, the decline in the prices of black metal products affects the price of ferroalloys. Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side, silicomanganese is suppressed by high inventory, and the fundamentals of silicoferrite are slightly better than those of silicomanganese. In the short term, ferroalloys show an oscillating pattern between the cost line and the previous pressure level. The price range of the silicoferrite 05 contract is between 5400 - 5900, and the price range of the silicomanganese 05 contract is between 5700 - 6100 [1][2][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter One: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction of ferroalloys is the game between cost support and downstream terminal inventory accumulation. Silicomanganese also has the pressure of high self - inventory, forming an oscillating pattern with cost support at the bottom and pressure at the top [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - Trend judgment: Range oscillation. - Price range: The price range of the silicoferrite 05 contract is between 5400 - 5900, and the price range of the silicomanganese 05 contract is between 5700 - 6100 [7]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range forecast: The monthly price range forecast for silicoferrite is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 12.09% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 15.7%. The monthly price range forecast for silicomanganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 9.93% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 5.6% [9]. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to their inventory situation, with a selling ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of SF: 5800 - 6000, SM: 6000 - 6200 [11]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory that hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [11]. 3.2 Chapter Two: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Likely positive factors: No information provided. - Likely negative factors: No information provided. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Wednesday, China will announce the CPI annual rate. - Next Wednesday, the United States will announce the January unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls. - Next Friday, the United States will announce the January seasonally adjusted CPI [18]. 3.3 Chapter Three: Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are shown [20]. - Basis and calendar spread structure: No specific analysis content provided, only relevant charts are shown [22][23]. 3.3.2 Factors Affecting the Market - Positive factors: Ferroalloys are supported by cost, so the downward space is limited; steel mill profits are good, and the futures profit has recovered, so steel mills have the motivation to increase and resume production, supporting the demand for ferroalloys; ferroalloys maintain a low - production strategy; silicoferrite warehouse receipt inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years; manganese ore quotations are firm, and the price is relatively stable with a month - on - month increase [17]. - Negative factors: The silicomanganese inventory base is high, at the highest level in the past 5 years, with great pressure to reduce inventory, and the increasing number of warehouse receipts exerts pressure on the futures market; downstream terminal steel is in the consumption off - season, and the inventory accumulation has accelerated year - on - year, so the support for the demand for ferroalloys may weaken; silicomanganese inventory continued to increase week - on - week [17]. 3.4 Chapter Four: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicoferrite and silicomanganese production profits and production, market prices and production costs, and also included the seasonal changes in ferroalloy electricity prices, the relationship between coking coal inventory structure and price, and the relationship between manganese ore price and port inventory through charts [37][38][41]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicoferrite export profit and export volume through a chart [63]. 3.5 Chapter Five: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - On the supply side, the production profit of ferroalloys has improved marginally but is still in the loss range. The possibility of large - scale production cuts is low, and the production volume will fluctuate slightly around the current level, with the production decline trend gradually flattening and starting to pick up slowly. - On the demand side, steel mills are making profits and have the motivation to resume production, but the downstream consumption demand is difficult to recover sustainably in the off - season, and the possibility of a significant increase in steel production is low, so the demand for ferroalloys can only increase limitedly. The high inventory of ferroalloys further restrains the demand. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years, with great inventory pressure, and inventory reduction may still need to be achieved through production cuts [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Projection - Analyzed the historical and predicted seasonal production of silicoferrite and silicomanganese, as well as the relationship between their production and production profit, and the relationship between their production and hot metal production through charts [67][69]. 3.5.3 Demand - side and Projection - Analyzed the historical and predicted seasonal demand for silicoferrite and silicomanganese in the five major steel products, and the relationship between their demand, hot metal production, steel enterprise profit rate, and steel product production profit through charts [75][77]. 3.5.4 Inventory - side and Projection - Analyzed the historical and predicted seasonal enterprise inventory, warehouse receipt quantity, and total inventory (warehouse receipt + factory inventory) of silicoferrite and silicomanganese through charts [91][93][97].