白糖产业周报：警惕原糖走弱拖累内盘-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's key trading point is whether the current sugar price will bottom - out and rebound. The domestic sugar price is likely to follow the international raw sugar price, with limited upward space and significant pressure at the 60 - day moving average [1]. - The 15 - cent level of international raw sugar is difficult to hold. Due to global surplus, the 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may turn into pressure rather than support [1]. - After the stocking season ends, the 3 - 5 spread of sugar futures may decline as the 03 contract faces greater inventory pressure [3]. - The SR2605 contract is more likely to follow raw sugar fluctuations. The 2026 import pressure will increase from May, and the SR2609 contract has greater pressure than SR2605. New opportunities may emerge in the new 01 contract of the new crushing season [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - For the 05 contract, it is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price, so it is likely to follow the raw sugar price. Currently, domestic sugar demand is average, and the weak international raw sugar price may drag down the domestic sugar price [1]. - The international raw sugar price has fallen below the 14.5 - 15 - cent oscillation range, and the 15.2 - cent cost line may become pressure due to global surplus [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a bottom - grinding phase. Zhengzhou sugar is oscillating narrowly, with significant pressure near the 60 - day moving average, and there is a risk of a post - rebound decline [8]. - There are no new basis and spread strategies. Past strategies include unilateral long SR2511 (stopped), selling spot and buying SR2511 (entered), long SR2511 and short SR2601 (exited), long SR2601 and short SR2605 (profited) [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted monthly sugar price range is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.94% and a historical percentile of 2.2% in the past 3 years [12]. - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, enterprises can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5300 - 5350 yuan and sell call options (SR603C5400) with a 50% ratio at 35 - 40 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [12]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can long Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at 5150 - 5200 yuan and sell put options (SR603P5000) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 yuan to lock in procurement costs [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: EU's 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop from 17.1 million tons to about 15.5 million tons due to reduced planting area. Brazil exported about 201,750 tons of sugar in January, a 2.09% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from April 2025 to January 2026 was 30.23 million tons, a 7.15% year - on - year decrease [13]. - Negative Information: As of February 5, 2026, 50 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 2 more than the same period last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 181,900 tons, 7600 tons more than last year. By late February, all 52 mills will start crushing [14]. As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 Guangxi sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane input was 33.4306 million tons, a decrease of 3.0971 million tons year - on - year; the sugar output was 4.029 million tons, a decrease of 0.788 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 12.05%, a 1.14 - percentage - point decrease; the cumulative sales were 1.5506 million tons, a decrease of 0.8303 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 38.49%, a 10.94 - percentage - point decrease [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Brazil's weekly port waiting - to - ship sugar quantity and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) [17]. - Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [19]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The domestic sugar price oscillated slightly downward last week. The main SR2605 contract fell 0.38% and reduced positions by 52.29 million lots. The largest profitable seat increased short positions, with a net short position of 31,000 lots, and foreign - funded seats increased net short positions slightly to 45,800 lots. Technically, Zhengzhou sugar is in an oscillatory adjustment, with significant pressure near the 60 - day moving average [20]. - The basis structure shows that the cheapest deliverable is at an 8 - yuan discount to the disk, stronger than last week due to the rising import sugar price. The import profit has declined. The domestic spot price is stable, and the domestic cheapest deliverable is at a 78 - yuan premium to the disk [23]. - The 3 - 5 spread has been oscillating since January and rebounded slightly last week. After the stocking season, the spread may decline as the 03 contract has greater inventory pressure [24]. - International Market: The raw sugar price fell 0.84% last week, closing at 14.14 cents, breaking the 14.5 - 15 - cent oscillation range. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large short position, with a net short position of 182,000 lots, a decrease of 21,000 lots from the previous week [26]. - The raw sugar futures structure is changing to a Contango structure. The 2025/26 production in Thailand decreased by 25% year - on - year, India's production increased by 22%, and Brazil's production increased. The premium of the far - month contract is beneficial for sugar mills to hedge, and there is hedging pressure above 15.2 cents [30]. - Domestic - International Spread Tracking: Due to the quota system, the domestic and international sugar prices are related. Currently, the domestic market is strong and the international market is weak, with good import profits. The domestic spot market is stable, and the international market is weak due to supply surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - China is a net sugar importer with high production costs, implementing a quota system with a 15% in - quota tariff and a 50% out - of - quota tariff. Recently, due to the falling international price and stable domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit is substantial. The import of syrup and premixed powder is relatively stable [35]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction - In the 2025/26 crushing season, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly to about 11.56 million tons, a 3.56% year - on - year growth, based on the planting area and cane growth. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 season and are for reference only [37].