南华期货铅产业周报：供需双弱-20260208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, lead prices entered a downward channel under the dual pressure of tightened macro - liquidity and seasonal industrial shutdown. The "Wash trade" led to a strong US dollar index, capping the valuation of non - ferrous metals including lead. Meanwhile, the domestic lead market is in a stage of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The marginal contraction of supply is offset by a more severe consumption slump. The lead market is in a weak reality logic of "supply exceeding demand, rising inventories and falling prices", and the fundamental analysis remains weak [3]. - In the short - term, the market is experiencing a pre - holiday capital risk - aversion wave, with extremely low trading sentiment. The spot is weak, and the Contango structure may expand, so there is a risk of downward correction due to large fluctuations in the external market during the holiday [7]. - Looking at the whole year of 2026, lead prices are still trapped in a wide - range oscillation pattern due to over - capacity and the substitution of recycled lead. Although there is cost support at the mine end, the price ceiling will be suppressed in the long - term due to the lack of new growth points in consumption and strict environmental capacity limits [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level: The "Wash trade" caused the US dollar index to be strong, forming a valuation ceiling for lead [3]. - Industry - level: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic lead market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The开工 rate of recycled lead enterprises has declined seasonally, and the consumption of downstream battery enterprises has come to a standstill. Inventories are rising [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see. The current price is in a seasonal weak range but close to the cost line, so the risk of short - selling increases. It is recommended to make arrangements after the post - holiday inventory data is clear [10]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of inter - period positive arbitrage. Due to the high inventory - accumulation pressure in February, the far - month contracts may be relatively stronger due to consumption recovery expectations. Observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity after the spread between the 03 - 05 contracts narrows [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 17,500 yuan/ton [11]. - Raw material management: For enterprises with low raw - material inventories worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 16,000 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive drivers: In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and routine maintenance of some enterprises, the production of primary lead is expected to decline month - on - month. The LME lead inventory is at a relatively medium - level historically, limiting the absolute downward space [12]. - Negative drivers: Hawkish signals in the "Wash trade", a sharp decline in the operating rate of battery enterprises, and expected increase in social inventories approaching 100,000 tons [13]. - Spot transaction information: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; the weekly average price is 16,805 yuan/ton; the monthly average price is 17,078.75 yuan/ton. The price of domestic lead concentrates is 16,150 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, and the price of imported lead concentrates is 16,483.7 yuan/ton, down 0.3% [15]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Domestic: On February 13th, pay attention to the initial value of the accumulation of social inventories announced by SMM [17]. - International: On February 10th, pay attention to the marginal adjustment of the "balance - sheet reduction" expectation by US inflation - related data [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic market: The lead price closed at 16,510 yuan/ton this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The basis and monthly spread structure show that the spot is weak, and the Contango structure may expand [18][20]. - International market: As of 15:00 this Friday, LME lead was at $1,948.5/ton. LME lead maintains a C - structure, and the spot is weaker than the futures [23][38]. - Internal - external price difference tracking: Relevant charts show the seasonal changes in lead spot import profit and loss and the relationship between the closing prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead [41]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The comparison of primary lead processing fees shows the changes in domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees [43]. - The relationship between SMM lead concentrate monthly production and domestic lead concentrate processing fees is also presented [43]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The relationship between lead concentrate import profit and loss and import volume is shown, as well as the monthly import volume and its year - on - year change [45][46]. - Seasonal charts of refined lead import, lead concentrate import, lead battery import and export, and lead ingot net export are provided [47][49][50]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Seasonal charts of domestic lead ingot total supply and monthly actual consumption are presented [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The monthly production of lead concentrates, global lead mine production, electrolytic lead production, and recycled refined lead production, as well as their year - on - year changes and seasonality, are shown [56][58]. - The capacity utilization rates of primary lead and recycled lead are presented [63]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Seasonal charts of lead battery operating rates (monthly, weekly, by type, and by region) are provided [65][66]. - Seasonal charts of lead battery import and export volumes, and the finished - product inventory days of lead battery enterprises and dealers are presented [68].