南华期货铜产业周报：铜价下跌，亚洲市场累库加速-20260208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The copper trading has entered a more complex and politicized new stage. The copper price dropped to the daily limit at the beginning of the week due to the drying up of liquidity and the weakening of speculative sentiment, and then rebounded under the boost of the "state reserve purchase" policy. The volatility of copper price reached a phased high. The release of indicators such as the US non - farm payrolls next week may change the holiday capital position - holding attitude [2]. - In the short - term, the trading logic focuses on macro - policy expectations, capital liquidity, and inventory structure changes. The price fluctuation reflects more of the emotional side rather than the substantial deterioration of the fundamentals. In the long - term, the core contradiction will shift to whether the strong physical supply - demand fundamentals can offset the negative impact of macro - policy uncertainties [7][8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The copper price dropped to the limit at the beginning of the week and then rebounded due to the "state reserve purchase" policy. The release of US non - farm payrolls and other indicators next week may affect the capital position - holding attitude during the holiday [2]. - Fundamentally, the sharp drop in copper price led to concentrated delivery of downstream orders. The upstream processing enterprises took the opportunity to set prices, the enterprise operating rate rebounded, raw material inventory increased, and finished - product inventory decreased. China is in the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, while the inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper has slowed down [2]. - According to the model, the current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend with a neutral cycle. The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.52, and that of going long on London copper is 1.16, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suitable for moderate participation [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: The latest price percentile of Shanghai copper is 99.48%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 20.27%, higher than the previous week and the historical volatility of 18.01%. The latest price percentile of LME copper is 99.74%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 15%, lower than the previous week and the historical volatility of 20.28% [9]. - Trend Judgment: The current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend at a low - cycle position [9]. - Price Range: The price range of Shanghai copper is [98549, 104071] with a price center of 101310; the price range of London copper is [12697, 13541] with a price center of 13119 [9]. - Strategy Recommendations: The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.52%, and that of going long on London copper is 1.16%, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suitable for moderate participation [9]. - Basis (Premium/Discount), Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: The basis strategy is bearish, the monthly spread strategy is neutral, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [11]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations - For enterprises with low raw material inventory and the need to replenish inventory before the festival, considering the significant increase in copper price volatility, it is recommended to use appropriate hedging tools to hedge the cost increase caused by price increases. Specific operations include batch - building positions near the support level of futures and buying up - and - out cumulative options in the over - the - counter market [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: China's non - ferrous metal industry association proposed three major countermeasures, including enhancing domestic raw material supply capacity, diversifying copper concentrate imports and overseas investments, and promoting copper smelting capacity management. Anglo American Resources adjusted its medium - and long - term copper production guidance downward. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper continued to accumulate significantly [18][19]. - Negative Information: The registered copper warrants in LME warehouses increased to the highest level since late February last year. Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on products imported into the US from countries that purchase, import, or obtain goods or services from Iran [19][20]. - Exchange Information: The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued risk warnings and adjusted trading margin ratios and daily price limits for copper futures contracts [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretations - Next week, major macro - economic indicators will be released, including US core retail sales, China's CPI and PPI, US unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls, etc. [22] Chapter 3: Interpretation of Disk Price, Volume, and Capital 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation - At the beginning of the week, affected by market sentiment, copper prices dropped and then fluctuated within a range. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper weighted index decreased, and the market speculation degree returned to below the median of 50. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated around 101659, and the term structure of Shanghai copper futures premium continued to provide favorable conditions for delivery arbitrage [25]. 3.2 Overseas Market Interpretation - LME copper and Comex copper maintained high volatility this week, with the amplitude narrowing compared with the previous week. The LME copper price was stronger than the Comex copper price, resulting in an increase in the inversion of the LC spread and a slowdown in the inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper. The net long positions of Comex copper speculators decreased [26]. Chapter 4: Spot Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit - This week, the copper spot price dropped significantly, the discount narrowed and even turned into a premium. The smelting income of refined copper spot decreased week - on - week, and the procurement willingness of smelting enterprises was weak while the shipping willingness was strong. The Yangshan copper premium recovered, and the copper import window opened. The operating rates of some processing industries rebounded, but it is expected to decline next week due to the approaching Spring Festival [30]. 4.2 Import Profit and Import Volume - This week, the copper import profit increased week - on - week, the recycled copper import profit decreased, the Shanghai - London ratio continued to weaken, and the copper import window opened. The export volume of copper and copper concentrates from Chile to China decreased, and it is expected that the arrival volume of copper concentrates in China in January will decrease month - on - month [33]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis - This week, affected by the increase in copper import profit and the opening of the import window, the global visible copper inventory continued to rise. The inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper and Shanghai copper slowed down. The total LME copper inventory increased, with the registered warrants increasing and the cancelled warrants decreasing. The copper concentrate inventory is lower than the same period in previous years [36]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - There are no maintenance plans for sample smelting enterprises in February, but the operating rate is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the output in February is likely to decrease. The output in January 2026 is expected to be about 1.12 million tons, lower than that in 2025 but higher than that in December 2024 [41]. 5.2 Demand Expectation - In January 2026, the operating rates of most copper processing enterprises rebounded compared with the previous expectations. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod, copper strip, copper tube, and copper cable enterprises increased, while the operating rate of brass rod enterprises decreased slightly [43][46]. 5.3 Price Expectation - The copper price dropped to the limit at the beginning of the week and then rebounded, with the volatility reaching a phased high. Near the Spring Festival, the activity of speculative trading will decline. For medium - term investors, attention can be paid to the price fluctuations in the range of 98000 - 100000. Short - term range operations are recommended before the festival, and chasing up or selling down should be done with caution [48].