债市可以继续看涨吗

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a bullish trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8% after a decline to this level on January 28. Recent movements indicate a gradual decrease in yields for long-term government bonds and government-backed securities [7][11][39] - Investors are advised to focus on three key questions regarding the potential for further yield declines: the extent of the rebound in yields, the possibility of further declines in the 10-year government bond yield, and the outlook for perpetual bonds [7][11][39] - The current spread between the 30-year and 10-year government bonds is approximately 42-43 basis points, with expectations that the 30-year yield could decline to around 2.2% if the 10-year yield remains stable at 1.8% [7][11][39] Group 2 - The report suggests that the 10-year government bond yield may face strong resistance at the 1.8% level, requiring significant positive stimuli to break below this threshold. Factors to monitor include potential interest rate cuts by the central bank and economic pressures affecting risk assets [12][41] - The sentiment around perpetual bonds has improved, with yields declining due to increased liquidity and positive market sentiment. However, the absolute returns on these bonds are currently limited [12][41] - The report outlines five strategies for bond selection, including focusing on high-frequency trading opportunities, long-term government bonds, and specific government-backed securities based on yield spreads [16][39] Group 3 - The bond market's overall sentiment remains strong, with a lack of significant negative factors currently impacting trading opportunities. The recent decline in overnight funding rates has further bolstered investor optimism [19][30] - The report indicates that the valuation of bonds is relatively attractive compared to other asset classes, with the current yield levels not appearing overly high [30][31] - The analysis of institutional holding costs shows that the average cost for funds holding 10-year government bonds is around 1.83%, indicating slight profitability for these institutions [22][30]