通信行业 25Q4 前瞻：AI 主线持续，国产网络提速

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the communication industry's investment strategy for 2026, focusing on the dual themes of AI enhancement and domestic network advancement [4] - It predicts a robust growth trajectory for various segments driven by AI demand and domestic production trends [5] AI Enhancement - The AI theme is expected to evolve around overseas mapping, optical communication prosperity, and changes in optoelectronic technology [4] - The shift from Scale out to Scale up in overseas mapping is highlighted, with an emphasis on the importance of an Ethernet-based open ecosystem as a significant growth driver [4] - The report anticipates a surge in silicon photonics and the introduction of Chiplet-based Optical (CPO) technology, expanding the optical communication landscape from modules to chips, cables, and OCS [4] Domestic Network Advancement - The report identifies a rapid acceleration in the domestic production trend across four key areas: chips, cloud, network, and end devices [4] - In the chip sector, there is significant potential for domestic growth due to global supply chain dynamics and market conditions [4] - The cloud and infrastructure segments are seeing marked improvements in local AIDC supply-demand dynamics, with rising demand for liquid cooling power supplies [4] - The network segment is poised for explosive growth under domestic Scale up and supernode solutions, with the satellite industry entering a critical phase of scale launches and commercialization [4] Segment Performance Forecasts - The report forecasts a strong performance for key companies in the communication sector for Q4 2025, with expected net profit growth rates exceeding 50% for several firms, including: - Heertai (+798%) - Guangku Technology (+439%) - 5.5G Canqin Technology (+290%) - New Yisong (+179%) [4] - Companies with projected net profit growth rates between 20%-50% include Tianfu Communication (+50%) and Lexin Technology (+47%) [4] - The report also highlights companies with lower growth expectations, such as Yilian Network (+9%) and China Telecom (+8%) [4] Key Companies and Their Prospects - China Mobile is expected to see stable capital expenditure with a focus on AI computing networks, enhancing its return on equity through improved revenue-cost dynamics [6] - Zhongji Xuchuang is positioned as a global leader in data communication optical modules, benefiting from AI computing demand and accelerating product iterations [6] - New Yisong is anticipated to leverage its strong brand presence and customer base to capitalize on AI computing network needs [6] - Tianfu Communication is expected to maintain growth driven by high-speed optical engine demand and breakthroughs with major clients [6] Emerging Trends and Opportunities - The satellite internet sector is expected to see significant catalysts, with a focus on regular launch progress and commercialization, indicating long-term investment value [5] - The high-precision positioning industry is benefiting from favorable policies and stable demand, with accelerated international expansion [5] - The report notes a recovery in connector demand, particularly in industrial sectors, with new opportunities emerging in robotics and other areas [5] - The IoT sector is projected to benefit significantly from AI and robotics, with expectations of high downstream demand growth [5]