南华期货工业硅产业周报：供需双减，技术面有进一步下探态势-20260208

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the industrial silicon market showed a volatile downward trend. The core driving logic for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures will focus on factors such as raw material price changes in the cost - end, production resumption and suspension in the supply - end, and demand - end conditions [2]. - Coal price fluctuations directly affect the power cost, which accounts for up to 30% of the industrial silicon production cost, and thus become a key factor influencing the price trend of industrial silicon [2]. - The supply of metallic silicon continues to decline, mainly in Xinjiang. The production of industrial silicon in February decreased by about 27.1% month - on - month and turned negative year - on - year. On the demand side, downstream polysilicon enterprises have production cut expectations, and the polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The organic silicon industry may have a decline in the start - up rate after the "anti - involution" meeting. The aluminum alloy industry's start - up rate is stable. Overall, the supply - demand of industrial silicon remains weak, and the technical side shows a further downward trend [3]. - For the near - term trading logic (before April 2026), focus on the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry and the demand - end production scheduling. For the long - term trading logic (after April 2026), focus on the production resumption and suspension in the supply - end and the demand - end's rush for exports [4][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving factors for the price trend of industrial silicon futures include cost - end raw material price changes, supply - end production resumption and suspension, and demand - end conditions. Coal price fluctuations directly affect the power cost, which is a key factor influencing industrial silicon prices [2]. - On the supply side, the production of metallic silicon decreased, mainly in Xinjiang. In February, the industrial silicon production decreased by about 27.1% month - on - month and turned negative year - on - year. On the demand side, downstream polysilicon enterprises have production cut expectations, and the polysilicon inventory is high. The organic silicon industry may have a decline in the start - up rate, and the aluminum alloy industry's start - up rate is stable. Overall, the supply - demand of industrial silicon remains weak, and the technical side shows a further downward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent support levels and hold a light or empty position during the Spring Festival [3]. 1.2 Industrial Operation Recommendations - The support level of the industrial silicon main contract is 8000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 44.0% [5]. Silicon Industry Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - For sales management, to prevent price decline and profit reduction, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts or use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 5% [8]. - For procurement management, when the finished product price is not correlated, to prevent cost increase, enterprises can buy corresponding futures contracts or use a combination option strategy (sell put options + buy call options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively. When the finished product price is correlated, to prevent inventory devaluation, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts or use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively [8]. - For inventory management, to prevent inventory devaluation, enterprises can short the main futures contract or use a combination option strategy (sell call options + buy put options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 5% [8]. Chapter 2: Important Information and Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - Hesheng Silicon Industry announced that it is expected to have a net loss attributable to the parent company's owners in 2025, with a net loss after deducting non - recurring gains and losses also expected [9]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the weighted contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8503 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of - 3.88%. The trading volume was about 409,600 lots (a week - on - week change of - 42.64%), and the open interest was about 388,800 lots (a week - on - week increase of 35,700 lots). The SI2605 - SI2609 spread was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week change of +5 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 15,707 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2436 lots [11]. - The MACD and moving averages show that the weighted price of industrial silicon futures declined significantly on Thursday and Friday, with an overall trend of increasing open interest and decreasing price. The Bollinger Band shows that the price of industrial silicon futures fell sharply to the lower track, and the bandwidth of the Bollinger Band showed a marginal expansion trend [11]. - After the price of industrial silicon futures decreased with increasing open interest this week, it is necessary to focus on the first support level of 8400 yuan/ton and the second support level of 8000 yuan/ton. If the price can stabilize, it will still be within the oscillation range; otherwise, there is a possibility of further decline [13]. 3.2 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been oscillating and declining significantly in the past week. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has been oscillating and weakening. The PCR of option open interest has been oscillating and strengthening. Currently, the volatility of the industrial silicon futures market is decreasing, and the PCR is increasing, indicating that the bearish sentiment in the market is gradually strengthening. Attention can be paid to opportunities to buy volatility [15]. 3.3 Capital Trends - Recently, there has been an increasing sign of short - position holdings in the key profitable seats of industrial silicon [17]. 3.4 Month - Spread Structure - The term structure diagram of industrial silicon shows that the current industrial silicon futures contracts are in a contango structure, and this structure has deepened in the past week [19]. 3.5 Basis Structure - The basis of the industrial silicon main contract is generally in a strong state due to the sharp decline in futures prices, and the overall spot trading has improved [22]. 3.6 Silicon Industry Chain Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in different regions have different changes. For example, the price of 553 industrial silicon in Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. The prices of other grades and regions remained unchanged. The price of polysilicon N - type price index increased by 2.37 yuan/kg week - on - week, with a week - on - week increase of 4.72%, while the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 800 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.29% [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The average profit of the industrial silicon industry is gradually weakening, and attention should be paid to the cost - end price situation. The profit of the polysilicon industry is oscillating downward, the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a strengthening trend, and the profit of the organic silicon industry is showing a warming trend [25][26]. Chapter 5: Fundamentals 5.1 Raw Material Costs - The prices of raw materials such as silica, electrodes, petroleum coke, and refined coal in different regions are presented, and the electricity prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon are also shown [30][32]. 5.2 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and start - up rates of industrial silicon from different data sources (Baichuan, Steel Union, SMM) have all decreased. For example, Baichuan's weekly total production of metallic silicon decreased by 2650 tons week - on - week, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%. The weekly production and start - up rates of industrial silicon in different regions (Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Northwest) are also presented, and the inventory situation of industrial silicon in different regions and ports is also shown [33][50]. 5.3 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon from different data sources (SMM, Baichuan) has decreased, and the start - up rate has also declined. The weekly inventory of domestic polysilicon has increased, including the inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [54][56]. 5.4 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The weekly start - up rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys have decreased slightly, and the inventory of primary aluminum alloy has decreased while the inventory of secondary aluminum alloy has increased [60]. 5.5 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC has decreased by 0.16 tons week - on - week, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.30% [65]. 5.6 Terminal - The data of China's commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity are presented [68].