有色钢铁行业周观点（2026年第6周）：短期波动不改中长期向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Short-term fluctuations do not alter the long-term positive trend for the non-ferrous metals sector, with a focus on low-position investment opportunities [7][12] - The zinc sector is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of "de-globalization," with improving supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [13] - The aluminum sector, particularly the electrolytic aluminum industry, is anticipated to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [14] - In the precious metals sector, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before re-entering positions, despite a long-term bullish outlook for gold [14] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Short-term market volatility is expected, but the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by ongoing demand and supply constraints in the non-ferrous metals market [12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand due to re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, despite current domestic construction concerns [13] - The aluminum industry is positioned to gain from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with domestic production capabilities improving [14] - Precious metals are currently experiencing high volatility, and investors are encouraged to wait for a more stable price environment before making new investments [14] 2. Steel Industry - The steel sector is facing a weak fundamental backdrop as it approaches the Chinese New Year, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [15] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, with a notable decrease in consumption [20] - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks are rising, indicating potential oversupply concerns [22] - Overall steel prices have experienced a slight decline, reflecting broader market trends [31] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [35] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing significant year-on-year growth [39] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown notable declines, while cobalt prices have remained stable [44]