Orient Securities·2026-02-08 13:25Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment remains volatile, leading to increased volatility in the commodity market. Short-term demand for replenishment supports prices after a correction in lithium carbonate futures. In the medium term, supply constraints and rising costs at the mining level maintain an upward price trend for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, with limited downside potential despite price corrections, and the market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [4][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. Lithium carbonate prices have significantly corrected, with downstream purchasing concentrated on replenishment. Futures contracts saw a weekly decline of 10.25% to 133,900 CNY/ton for the Wuxi 2605 contract and 10.92% to 132,000 CNY/ton for the Guangxi 2605 contract. Lithium concentrate prices were reported at 1,880 USD/ton, down 90 USD from the previous week [9][14] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements include support for rural consumption expansion, particularly in new energy vehicles and smart home appliances, as outlined in the 2026 Central Document No. 1. Tian Tie Technology announced its subsidiary completed high-tech enterprise re-certification. Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 13.93% stake in Huirong Mining for 1.2597 billion CNY to enhance lithium supply security [18] 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - January production of domestic lithium carbonate increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4%. The inventory showed structural adjustments [19][23]