中国央行继续增持黄金，美伊谈判仍存分歧

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation remains complex, with ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, and the market is in a state of high volatility [3][17]. - The stock market has low trading volume before the Spring Festival, and inflation data is worthy of attention. If inflation rises and the structure is good, the macro - situation this year may be more optimistic [4][28]. - Metal prices are under pressure due to factors such as price declines and inventory accumulation, but different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [5][34][40]. - For agricultural products, the supply and demand situation varies, and different investment strategies are proposed for different products [43][47][53]. - Energy prices are affected by geopolitical factors, with oil prices maintaining a high - level shock [7][80]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - China's gold reserves at the end of January 2026 were reported at 74.19 million ounces, increasing for the 15th consecutive month. After the first round of US - Iran negotiations, the subsequent negotiations will continue. The impact of CME's margin increase has been basically digested, and bottom - fishing funds have appeared. The overall volatility of precious metals is still high, especially for silver. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to decline before making long - term investments [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US - Iran indirect negotiation in Oman ended without an agreement, and the geopolitical situation remains complex. The US Treasury Secretary believes that the Fed will not rush to reduce the balance sheet. It is expected that the US dollar index will fluctuate [17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The demand for AI infrastructure is strong, and hardware suppliers have stronger pricing power. However, the downstream application end faces greater cost pressure, and the US stock market is expected to remain in a high - level shock [22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal of funds was 14.6 billion yuan. The bond market's hedging attribute was activated, and Treasury bond futures fluctuated upward. It is recommended to moderately pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling T at high prices [25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote effective investment. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there are relatively few opportunities before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to continue to hold long - term stock index strategies [28]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal is running strongly. It is expected that the price of imported coal will continue to be strong in the short term, and the Indonesian policy will have a bottom - consolidating effect, but the upward elasticity is limited [30][31]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Anglo American raised its iron ore production target for 2026. The iron ore price has weakened significantly this week, and it is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern around the Spring Festival. The lower space is limited, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock [34]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In January 2026, China's excavator sales increased by 49.5% year - on - year. The steel price is under pressure due to price declines and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to adopt a shock - thinking approach and pay attention to risks with a light position before the Spring Festival [36][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased last week, and the estimated crushing volume will decrease this week. The price of Malaysian palm oil is in a short - term decline. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to the MPOB report and the POC conference [42][43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports in January decreased year - on - year, and the sugar production in the first half of January in the central and southern regions decreased by 32% year - on - year. The hedging progress of Brazilian sugar mills is far lower than that of the same period last year. It is expected that the domestic sugar price will be in a low - level shock in the short term [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Pakistan's cotton industry is facing challenges due to the reduction of tariffs on Indian products by the US and the EU. The cotton planting cost in Xinjiang may increase in 2026. The US cotton export data shows that the signing and shipping performance is good. It is expected that the cotton price will be in a shock pattern around the Spring Festival [49][53]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean harvest progress is faster than that of the same period last year. The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was high last week and is expected to decrease this week. It is expected that the soybean meal futures price will be in a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the weather in Argentina and China's actual purchase of US soybeans [55][57]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australian lithium mines have increased their production guidance. The export of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from Chile in January increased month - on - month. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to destock in February. It is recommended to take a bullish view and pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices after the position and volatility are stable [58][60]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Brazil's key mineral investment is surging, and copper is the most attractive key mineral. The 125,000 - ton/year cathode copper refining project of Liangshan Copper Industry is expected to start trial production in March. It is expected that the copper price will be in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to arrange long - term positions at low prices [62][64]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production decreased significantly last week, and the secondary lead production also decreased. The demand for lead - acid batteries is seasonally weak, and the social inventory is expected to increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see [65]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc smelting profit has decreased significantly, and the demand is seasonally weak. The domestic social inventory has increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and use call options instead for unilateral operations [68]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The price of Shanghai tin decreased last week, and the inventory decreased. The supply of tin is expected to be less tight, but there are still uncertainties. The demand is weak. It is expected that the price will be in a wide - range shock [71][74]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The operating rate of PDH increased. The LPG price is fluctuating due to the Iran issue. The port inventory in China is at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [75]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has continued to decline. It is expected that the price will have a small - scale rebound, but there are still more bearish factors. It is expected that the EU carbon price will be in a wide - range shock [77]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. The second round of US - Iran negotiations is expected to be held in the next few days. The geopolitical conflict supports the oil price, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [79][80]. 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - New container ship orders have been placed. The decline of the spot price has slowed down before the Spring Festival. Some shipping companies have issued price increase notices. It is recommended to view the market with a strong - shock thinking and wait and see [82].