煤炭行业周报（2月第1周）：印尼意在稳价，节后有望开启补库行情

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia's production quota reduction policy aims to stabilize coal market prices, and strict enforcement of the 600 million tons quota in 2026 may tighten global thermal coal supply, potentially reshaping the coal supply-demand landscape and significantly raising coal price levels [6][24] - Domestic supply and demand are expected to decrease as the holiday approaches, with social inventory continuing to decline, highlighting the impact of holiday breaks and regulatory policies on production [6][24] - The current coal price is considered low, and policies are likely to provide support, with healthy fundamentals in coking coal and low inventory levels suggesting a stable price increase driven by reduced supply and downstream restocking [6][24] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector fell by 0.61% as of February 6, 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which dropped by 1.33%, with a 0.72 percentage point advantage [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.33 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.3% but a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [2] - The total coal inventory of key monitored enterprises reached 22.73 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% [2] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 682 RMB/ton, down 0.44% week-on-week, while the imported thermal coal price index was 840 RMB/ton, up 3.58% week-on-week [3] - Coking coal prices at major ports remained stable, while the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700 RMB/ton, down 4.5% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and flexible coking coal companies, with specific companies highlighted for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [6][24]