Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - cane harvest in February and the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. In China, as the supply of imported sugar decreases and sugar prices reach a low level, the downward space in the short - term is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at a high level due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market. In the long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new season and the positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [9]. - For protein meal, the expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives up the price of US soybeans. For China, although the long - term supply pressure increases, the import cost rises as the price of US soybeans goes up. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - For oils and fats, driven by biodiesel policies in various countries, the increase in consumption of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate, so the medium - term outlook for oil prices is positive. In the short - term, due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, oil prices fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [17]. - For eggs, during the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, with weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may still need to squeeze out the premium. For the far - end, the logic of capacity reduction will be re - traded after the spot price turns down, but the implementation path is still uncertain [19]. - For pigs, the large basic supply and the current accumulation of live - pig inventory make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. The near - term prices are still under pressure, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. For the long - term, although the reduction in production capacity has been revised down, there are still expectations of a high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and recovery in consumer demand. Pay attention to the support at lower levels after the price follows the decline [22]. 3. Summary by Categories Sugar - Market Information: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,228 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day. The quoted price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,270 - 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of February 4, the number of vessels waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons in the previous week. StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons; the sugar sales in December were 1.22 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales in the 2025/26 season were 1.57 million tons; the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3][4]. - Strategy: Wait for the price to rebound after the negative factors are digested, and stay on the sidelines for now [5]. Cotton - Market Information: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,025 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, down 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons; of which, the exports to China were 8,800 tons in that week, and the cumulative exports to China were 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. In January, the USDA predicted that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous season. The predicted US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast, with the export forecast unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's total cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [7][8]. - Strategy: Focus on low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival, as there is room for price increase in the long - term [9]. Protein Meal - Market Information: On Friday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,735 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. StoneX's latest forecast shows that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points higher than the five - year average; the soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [11][12]. - Strategy: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: On Friday, the oils and fats futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,026 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,144 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,650 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month, exports were 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on biofuel tax credits, which was well - received by the market. The shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively from the previous month. From January 23 to January 30, the inventory of the three major oils and fats in domestic samples decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons [15][16]. - Strategy: Go long after a pullback as the medium - term outlook is positive [17]. Eggs - Market Information: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with slight weakness in some areas. Before the Spring Festival, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan was not reported, the price in Xinji dropped 0.09 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao dropped 0.07 yuan to 2.89 yuan/jin, the price in Xishui remained at 3.38 yuan/jin, and the price in Dongguan dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.23 yuan/jin. Market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. Considering the limited decrease in supply and the inventory accumulation during the festival, egg prices may fall below the cost after the festival [18]. - Strategy: Short the near - month contract and be cautious about the far - end contract [19]. Pigs - Market Information: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.14 yuan to 12.14 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.4 yuan to 11.14 yuan/kg. The improvement in demand was limited, and the enthusiasm of farmers for selling pigs was high. The overall supply was abundant, and pig prices were under pressure. It is expected that pig prices in the north may be stronger and stable in the south today [21]. - Strategy: Short on rebounds in the near - term and pay attention to the support at lower levels in the long - term [22].
2026-02-09：五矿期货农产品早报-20260209
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-09 00:49