五矿期货能源化工日报-20260209

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Methanol - Current methanol has priced in a considerable number of negative factors. Overseas geopolitics may still fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [2]. 2.2 Urea - The situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expectation of a recovery in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations for urea are approaching. It is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [3]. 2.3 Crude Oil - Current oil prices have risen to a certain extent and have priced in a relatively high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. Considering the previous prediction that Venezuela's production increase will exceed expectations and OPEC's subsequent production increase and recovery expectations, medium - term layout should be the main operation idea, but it is necessary to wait for the end of the geopolitical situation to eliminate tail risks [8]. 2.4 Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate significantly following the commodity market. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Short positions can be taken when RU2605 is below 16,000, and the position of buying the main NR contract and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. 2.5 PVC - Fundamentally, enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The reduction in supply is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. In general, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Short - term electricity price expectations, production capacity clearance expectations, and export rush sentiment support PVC. As the industry enters a very low - profit range, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in production capacity and production [16]. 2.6 Pure Benzene & Styrene - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene have declined, and the basis has widened. The spot and futures prices of styrene have declined, and the basis has weakened. Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is relatively high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The production of pure benzene at a low level has rebounded, and the supply is still relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation in the supply side has increased, and the production of styrene has fluctuated at a low level. Styrene port inventory has continued to increase. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products in the demand side has increased. The port inventory of pure benzene has decreased from a high level, and the port inventory of styrene has continued to decrease. Since the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. 2.7 Polyethylene - The futures price has risen. OPEC+ has announced plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for downward PE valuation. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a historical high in the same period, reducing the pressure on the market. In the supply side, only one BASF plant has been put into production in the first half of 2026, and the coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. In the seasonal off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films in the demand side may reach its peak, and the overall operating rate is declining [23]. 2.8 Polypropylene - The futures price has risen. In the cost side, the EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventories will slightly decrease, and the oversupply situation may ease. In the supply side, there are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, reducing pressure. In the demand side, the operating rate of downstream industries fluctuates seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period. When the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year, the market price may bottom out. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led downward trends to production capacity mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. 2.9 PX - Currently, PX production remains at a high level, and there are many maintenance activities in the downstream PTA industry, with the overall operating rate at a relatively low level. It is expected that PX will maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation center has risen, and short - process profits are also high. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand structure of both PX and downstream PTA is relatively strong, with a good medium - term outlook. The repair of PTA processing fees has also further expanded the PXN space. For the subsequent valuation to rise further, it is necessary for the downstream polyester production start - up and raw material plant maintenance plans after the Spring Festival to meet expectations. Medium - term attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips following crude oil [28]. 2.10 PTA - In the future, the supply side will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber will gradually decline due to the off - season. PTA will enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage. In terms of valuation, PTA processing fees are expected to remain high and stable, and PXN has回调 to a neutral level. There is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Medium - term attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips and grasping the rhythm [30]. 2.11 Ethylene Glycol - In terms of industry fundamentals, the number of overseas plant maintenance activities is higher than that in the fourth quarter, but the decline in domestic maintenance is still insufficient. The current overall operating rate is still relatively high. The expected import volume in February will decrease slightly, but due to the downstream off - season, the port stock - building pressure is still high. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of stock - building and high operating rates. The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. The current valuation is relatively low compared to the same period. Tensions in the Iranian situation and the rebound in coal prices support its valuation in the short term, and there are increasing unexpected production cut news under the low profit of oil - chemical industry, so there is a risk of rebound [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea - Market Information: In Shandong, the price changed by 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Shanxi, the price did not change; in Jiangsu, the price changed by 10 yuan/ton; in the Northeast, the price did not change. The overall basis was reported at - 16 yuan/ton. The main futures contract price changed by - 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1776 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Methanol - Market Information: In Jiangsu, the price changed by - 45 yuan/ton; in Lunan, the price changed by - 2.5 yuan/ton; in Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, the price did not change. The main futures contract price changed by 6 yuan/ton, reported at 2244 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 5 yuan [5]. 3.3 Singapore ESG Oil Products - Inventory Data: Gasoline inventory increased by 0.62 million barrels to 17.53 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.68%; diesel inventory increased by 0.33 million barrels to 8.93 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%; fuel oil inventory increased by 4.26 million barrels to 24.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 21.37%; total refined oil inventory increased by 5.21 million barrels to 50.65 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [6]. 3.4 Fuel Oil - Market Information: High - sulfur fuel oil closed up 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22%, reported at 2831 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46%, reported at 3298 yuan/ton [7]. 3.5 Crude Oil - Market Information: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed up 1.7 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.37%, reported at 465.4 yuan/barrel; the main high - sulfur refined oil futures contract... (not fully described in the text) [8]. 3.6 Rubber - Market Information: The short - term rubber market is priced by funds, with a low correlation with fundamentals. Bulls are bullish due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations; bears are bearish due to weak demand. As of January 29, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.41%, 0.29 percentage points lower than the previous week and 54.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of all - steel tires was under pressure. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 75.35%, 0.08 percentage points higher than the previous week and 53.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 25, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 127.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 tons, a decrease of 0.17%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 84.7 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 42.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. As of January 30, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an increase of 1.88%. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15,150 (- 100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1935 (- 20) US dollars; STR20 mixed was 1935 (- 20) US dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9950 (- 400) yuan; cis - polybutadiene in North China was 12300 (- 100) yuan [10][11][12]. 3.7 PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract fell 71 yuan, reported at 4981 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 90) yuan/ton. The basis was - 221 (- 19) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (- 4) yuan/ton. In the cost side, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 698 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 589 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; among them, the calcium carbide - based process was 80.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the ethylene - based process was 75.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [15]. 3.8 Pure Benzene & Styrene - Market Information: In the cost side, the price of pure benzene in East China was 6070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures side, the spot price of styrene was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton; the basis was 175 yuan/ton, a weakening of 36 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 171.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 51.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.6 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. In the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. In the demand side, the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%; the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [19]. 3.9 Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6812 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 137 yuan/ton, a weakening of 100 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons; the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 52 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [22]. 3.10 Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6715 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis was 24 yuan/ton, a weakening of 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons; the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons; the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was 121 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton [24]. 3.11 PX - Market Information: The PX03 contract rose 74 yuan, reported at 7172 yuan; the PX CFR rose 6 US dollars, reported at 898 US dollars. After conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, the basis was - 59 yuan (- 12), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan (+ 12). In terms of PX production, the production in China was 89.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the Asian production was 82.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Regarding the plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and the production of Fujian United Petrochemical fluctuated. The PTA production was 77.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. Regarding the plants, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 40.8 tons of PX to