宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-02-09-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Price Change Calculation Method - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day's daytime closing price to calculate the price change [2] 3.3 Strength and Weakness Criteria - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] 3.4 Driving Logic of Methanol Price - The most critical factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices recently is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, as the main import source, is in the stage of winter natural gas supply guarantee and production restriction, with most methanol plants reducing or halting production. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January - February. Geopolitical risks are rising, which boosted the domestic methanol futures to maintain a volatile and strong trend on the night of last Friday [5]