格林大华期货早盘提示：玉米，生猪，鸡蛋-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [1][3] - Egg: Hold [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the spot market trading is light and prices fluctuate slightly; in the medium - term, there is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, maintaining a wide - range trading idea; in the long - term, the pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation as the key focus [1] - Pig: In the short - term, supply is abundant before the Spring Festival, and consumption support weakens, showing a short - term supply pressure; in the medium - term, supply pressure exists before March and eases from April; in the long - term, supply pressure exists before August, and the expectation of far - month contracts is lowered [3] - Egg: In the short - term, supply pressure emerges as the Spring Festival approaches; in the medium - term, egg supply pressure is postponed; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended, waiting for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - Last Friday night, the corn futures fluctuated and consolidated. As of the night - session close, the main 2605 contract fell 0.09% to 2275 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the 6th, the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises fluctuated slightly. In the Northeast, it was 2170 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day; in North China, the average purchase price was 2305 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - As of February 6, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.73 million tons, with the arrival rhythm slowing down. The morning collection at the port was less than 30,000 tons. The corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 530,000 tons, and the daily shipment of domestic corn was 40,000 tons. Feed enterprises' restocking speed slowed down [1] - As of February 6, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 6870 lots from the previous trading day, with a cumulative total of 60,440 lots [1] - In the 6th week, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast was 68% (65% last week, 59% average in the past three years); in North China, it was 57% (55% last week, 56% average in the past three years) [1] - As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, the grain inventory in Guangzhou Port was 1.12 million tons, down 16.48% month - on - month and 61.98% year - on - year. Corn inventory was 454,000 tons, down 31.52% month - on - month and 71.63% year - on - year; sorghum inventory was 181,000 tons, up 82.83% month - on - month and down 75.37% year - on - year; barley inventory was 485,000 tons, down 16.23% month - on - month and 20.62% year - on - year [1] - In the 5th week of 2026, the total corn bidding purchase plan of CGS was 342,700 tons, with an actual transaction of 113,100 tons and a transaction rate of 33%; the bidding sales plan was 190,900 tons, with an actual transaction of 106,900 tons and a transaction rate of 56%; the two - way purchase and sales plan was 693,300 tons, with an actual transaction of 642,800 tons and a transaction rate of 93% [1] Market Logic - Short - term: The spot market trading turns light, and prices fluctuate slightly. Medium - term: There is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, maintaining a wide - range trading idea, focusing on the rhythm and intensity of policy grain auctions. Long - term: Maintaining the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost, focusing on policy orientation [1] Trading Strategy - Medium - term: Maintain a wide - range trading idea. For the 2603 contract, the short - term support is 2250, and the short - term pressure is 2280; for the 2605 contract, the short - term support is 2250, and the short - term pressure is 2280. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the Spring Festival to prevent holiday risks [1] Pig Market Review - Last Friday, the pig futures fluctuated weakly. The main 2605 contract fell 0.68% to 11,625 yuan/ton [1][3] Important Information - Over the weekend, pig prices continued to be weak. On the 8th, the national average pig price was 11.74 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg from last Friday. It is expected that on the 9th morning, pig prices will be stronger in the north and stable in the south [1][3] - At the end of December, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, 101.6% of the normal reserve [3] - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (only decreased in July), indicating an increasing trend in pig slaughter before March this year. From October to December 2025, the number of new - born piglets decreased for three consecutive months, by 1%, 0.8%, and 1.2% respectively, indicating a relief of supply pressure from April this year [3] - As of February 5, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.27 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week, with an expanding month - on - month decline [3] - On February 6, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.47 yuan/jin, the same as the previous day [3] - On February 6, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous day, with a total of 647 lots [3] - On February 6, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued an implementation opinion, mentioning the strengthening of comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, implementing annual production filing management for leading pig - breeding enterprises, and regulating the inventory of fertile sows to promote market supply - demand matching [3] Market Logic - Short - term: This week is the pre - Spring Festival concentrated stocking period, with sufficient supply in the pig market. As the Spring Festival approaches, consumption support will weaken, and short - term supply pressure will still appear. Medium - term: There is still an expected increase in pig supply before March, and supply pressure will be released; supply pressure will ease from April. Long - term: Supply pressure exists before August, but the decline in the inventory of fertile sows at the end of 2025 was less than expected, and the expectation of far - month contracts is lowered [3] Trading Strategy - Last week, it was continuously suggested that short positions in the near - month contracts enter the profit - taking area, and short positions in the far - month contracts test the lower support. For the 2603 contract, the support is 10,500 - 10,800, and the pressure is 11,000 - 11,150; for the 2605 contract, the support is 11,500, and the pressure is 11,780; for the 2607 contract, the support is 12,000, and the pressure is 12,400; for the 2609 contract, the support is 13,000, and the pressure is 13,300. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the Spring Festival to prevent holiday risks [3] Egg Market Review - Last Friday, the egg futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The main 2603 contract fell 0.34% to 2904 yuan/500KG [3] Important Information - Over the weekend, the national egg price continued to decline. On the 8th, the price of Hebei Guantao powder eggs was 2.89 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [3] - On the 6th, the inventory level decreased steadily. The average inventory in the production link was 1.23 days, down 0.03 days from the previous day; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.41 days, down 0.04 days from the previous day [3] - On the 6th, the average price of Hailan Brown old hens in the mainstream market was 4.42 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day [3] - As of February 5, the weekly culling age of old hens was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [3] - In January, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.342 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 4.11%. The theoretical estimated inventory of laying hens in February is 1.331 billion [3] Market Logic - Short - term: As the Spring Festival approaches, spot trading turns light, and supply pressure gradually appears. The expectation of weak demand and strong supply in February pressuring egg prices to fall is being realized. Medium - term: Although the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month, the decline was limited. After the significant increase in egg prices in January, the sentiment of farmers improved, the culling age stopped falling and rebounded, and the chick replenishment increased month - on - month, postponing the egg supply pressure. Long - term: The continuous increase in the scale of egg - chicken farming may extend the price bottom cycle and limit the upward space driven by culling. Wait patiently for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [3] Trading Strategy - Last week, it was continuously suggested that short positions in the 2603 contract enter the profit - taking area below 3000. It is recommended to consider taking profits in batches. Currently, it is advisable to hold a wait - and - see attitude, focusing on the culling and molting rhythm around the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the Spring Festival to prevent holiday risks [3]