焦煤焦炭月报：煤焦供需双弱，静待节后指引-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak before the Spring Festival, and the post - festival trend depends on the game between upstream and downstream: In the coking coal segment, production is adjusted due to the Spring Festival and safety production constraints, and it is expected to decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival. In the coke segment, poor profits suppress production enthusiasm, and supply is in a contraction state. In the steel mill segment, production will remain at a low level during the Spring Festival, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but the actual recovery height depends on the game between terminal demand release intensity and steel mill profit levels. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise. The supply of coking coal is expected to be loose, while the supply of coke will continue to contract. The demand depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit space. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that coking coal and coke will mainly fluctuate within a range, with coke in the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton and coking coal in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/ton [3][33]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - Futures market: In January, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated widely, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Coking coal futures first rose due to winter storage expectations, then fell due to high Mongolian coal customs clearance and sufficient domestic supply, and finally entered a shock phase. Coke futures basically followed the trend of coking coal [8]. - Spot market: Mongolian coal prices were closely linked to futures, while Shanxi - produced coking coal prices were relatively lagging. In January, the mainstream coal types in Shanxi generally rose by 80 - 150 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and then weakened in the late month [8]. - Fundamentals: For coking coal, the supply pressure gradually accumulated, with increased domestic coal mine production and high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance. The downstream winter storage brought phased demand but with limited intensity. For coke, the supply - demand pattern was loose, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, but profits continued to shrink [8]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Production Declined Slightly - In January, coking coal production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year, mainly affected by the Spring Festival and weak downstream demand. Shanxi's production decreased by 4% month - on - month, while Inner Mongolia's increased by 2.1%. State - owned key coal mines accounted for 72% of the total output, and private small and medium - sized mines had a low start - up rate of 52%. In February, production is expected to decline seasonally and recover quickly after the festival [9][11]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal Import Had a Good Momentum - In 2025, China's coking coal imports were low in the first half and high in the second half, with a total import volume of 118.6256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.3% of the total imports. In January, Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly year - on - year, and the port inventory was high. After the Spring Festival, customs clearance is expected to remain at a high level [12]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In January, the coking coal market was in a state of inventory accumulation. The inventory was transferred from upstream to mid - and downstream. By the end of January, the upstream coal mine raw coal inventory increased by 660,000 tons month - on - month, the port inventory decreased by 130,000 tons, the coking plant inventory increased by 1.95 million tons, and the steel mill coking coal inventory increased by 76,000 tons [17]. 3.2.4 Overall Contraction of Coke Supply - In January, coking enterprises' profits were poor, and the start - up rate increased limitedly. The national coking profit was - 50 - 60 yuan/ton, and the independent coking enterprise start - up rate was stable at around 72%. Coke production was at a relatively low level, and the supply continued to contract. Steel mill coke production remained stable, with a daily average output of 465,000 - 470,000 tons [19]. 3.2.5 Coke Import and Export - In 2025, China's coke exports showed a downward trend, with a total export volume of 794,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. Exports were mainly to Indonesia, India, and Japan. In 2026, coke exports are expected to be generally stable. Domestic coke self - sufficiency rate is high, and imports have little impact on the market [21][22]. 3.2.6 Coke Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, coke inventory increased, mainly driven by steel mill replenishment. By the end of January, the total domestic coke inventory was about 9.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons month - on - month. The coking plant inventory decreased by 60,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 200,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 360,000 tons [23]. 3.3 Demand Side: Contracted Before the Festival and Recovered After the Festival - Affected by the Spring Festival and pre - festival stockpiling, coke demand weakened before the festival. In January, overall consumption was stable, slightly better than the same period last year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills remained in the range of 80% - 85%, and the daily average pig iron output was about 2.28 million tons, a slight decrease of 5,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the start - up rate will remain low in early February and gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but it depends on the game between steel mill profit repair and raw material costs [28]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Coking coal: Affected by the Spring Festival and safety production, production will decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival, and the supply will be generally stable [32]. - Coke: Coking enterprises' profits are poor, and the supply continues to contract. Steel mill self - produced coke remains stable [32]. - Steel mills: During the Spring Festival, production will remain at a low level. After the Lantern Festival, the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, but the actual recovery height depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit levels [32]. - Macro - level: The domestic economy is stable, with weak real estate investment and strong infrastructure and manufacturing investment. Overseas, there are geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, and the global economy has uncertainties. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise, and they are expected to fluctuate within a range [33].