格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the commodity market was weak on February 6, with the vegetable oil sector mainly in a weak oscillation. The prices of various oil futures contracts showed different changes, and the inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased week - on - week. For the oil market, due to factors such as the unstable situation in the Middle East, US biodiesel policies, and changes in production and exports of palm oil, the market is expected to be volatile. For the two - meal market, although there is an external input cost increase, due to domestic auction expectations and the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market is mainly in a weak and narrow - range oscillation, and is likely to be under pressure after the Spring Festival [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Vegetable Oil: On February 6, the soybean oil main contract Y2605 closed at 8102 yuan/ton, down 0.02% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 14,549 lots; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 8054 yuan/ton, up 0.10% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1,551 lots. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9026 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 11,261 lots; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8998 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 2,111 lots. The rapeseed oil main contract OI2609 closed at 9090 yuan/ton, up 0.04% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1,447 lots; the second - main contract OI2605 closed at 9144 yuan/ton, down 0.7% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 1,911 lots [1] - Two - Meal: On February 6, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2735 yuan/ton, up 0.15% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 5,5549 lots; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2858 yuan/ton, up 0.14% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5,583 lots. The rapeseed meal main contract RM2605 closed at 2239 yuan/ton, up 0.04% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 12,185 lots; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2286 yuan/ton, up 0.09% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1,045 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - Vegetable Oil: Crude oil futures fell nearly 3% as supply concerns eased before the US - Iran talks. The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons. Bloomberg estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, exports were 1.42 million tons, imports were 40,000 tons, consumption was 340,000 tons, and inventory was 2.89 million tons. Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in January decreased by 13.08% month - on - month. The ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 17.9% compared with December. In 2025, Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, with a year - on - year increase of 9.09%. As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [1] - Two - Meal: Trump said that he had a "very positive" call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and China agreed to increase soybean purchases from the US from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. The ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 were 3.79 million tons. The AgRural predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be 181 million tons. As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete. As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,200 tons, and the contract volume was 4.9937 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 762,200 tons. The domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the contract volume was 0 tons. The domestic imported soybean inventory was 6.8483 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 343,500 tons. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 120,000 tons [3] 3.3 Spot Market - Vegetable Oil: As of February 6, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8640 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 536 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9080 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 84 yuan/ton, and the palm oil import profit was - 335.9 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9870 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 726 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 41 yuan/ton [2] - Two - Meal: As of February 5, the spot price of soybean meal was 3106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 62,000 tons. The base difference of the soybean meal main contract was 369 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2510 yuan/ton, with a base difference of 172 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 61 yuan/ton [3] 3.4 Market Logic - Vegetable Oil: Externally, the unstable situation in the Middle East made international oil prices fluctuate, but the decline of US soybean oil was limited due to US biodiesel policies. The decrease in January production boosted the expectation of a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price was expected to oscillate. For soybean oil, the factory's开机率 remained around 65% in the past two weeks, and the decrease in factory soybean oil inventory was limited. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated restocking of traders would support the base difference, but then the traditional off - season would come, and if the rumor of 5 million tons of soybean auctions came true, the base difference would be under pressure. For palm oil, although the decrease in production and increase in exports were positive, the high inventory of about 2.9 million tons put pressure on the market. For rapeseed oil, due to the weakening of the domestic macro - sentiment and the expected maintenance of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed at 14.9%, the far - month contracts of rapeseed oil were under pressure [2] - Two - Meal: Externally, after the Sino - US leaders' call, the expectation of purchasing 45 million tons of US soybeans in the second quarter and the increase in domestic biodiesel demand in the US made US soybeans continue to rise strongly. As the Spring Festival approached, some institutions adjusted their positions. The increasing sales pressure in Brazil and the falling premium led to the market's focus on the profit transfer from upstream to downstream. The rumor of 5 million tons of imported soybean auctions after the Spring Festival weakened the expectation of supply shortage. Domestically, the logistics transportation gradually stopped around the Lunar New Year's Eve, and the actual trading of oil mills was light. For rapeseed meal, due to the active far - month purchases of rapeseed by domestic oil mills, the domestic two - meal market was mainly in a weak and narrow - range oscillation and was likely to be under pressure after the Spring Festival [3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Vegetable Oil: With the Spring Festival approaching, due to the uncontrollable external macro - risks, it is advisable to conservatively wait and see and conduct intraday trading. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [2] - Two - Meal: During the Spring Festival, the two - meal market is mainly in a narrow - range oscillation, and it is advisable to conduct intraday trading with an unclear direction. There is no arbitrage strategy for now [3][4] 3.6 Contract Pressure and Support Levels - Vegetable Oil: The pressure level of Y2605 is 8560, and the support level is 7400; the pressure level of Y2609 is 8692, and the support level is 7370; the pressure level of P2605 is 9418, and the support level is 7940; the pressure level of P2609 is 9696, and the support level is 7940; the pressure level of OI2605 is 9544, and the support level is 8250; the pressure level of OI2609 is 9400, and the support level is 8400 [2] - Two - Meal: The pressure level of M2605 is 2858, and the support level is 2660; the pressure level of M2607 is 2840, and the support level is 2559; the pressure level of M2609 is 2920, and the support level is 2717; the pressure level of RM2605 is 2444, and the support level is 2220; the pressure level of RM2607 is 2429, and the support level is 2200; the pressure level of RM2609 is 2448, and the support level is 2274 [4]