节前资金离场，规避长假风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro level: Pre - holiday capital left the market to avoid risks during the long holiday. The decline of precious metals cooled the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, and capital left the market to release high - level risks. Non - ferrous metals generally fell, with a slight stabilization on Friday [5]. - Industry level: Lithium prices dropped for several consecutive days, and downstream price - setting was active. Currently, inventory has been stocked up to the end of the month, and further procurement depends on the production schedule in March. Due to the Spring Festival in February, imports were low, and smelters carried out maintenance, resulting in limited supply increase. The whole month is expected to see inventory reduction. In March, after resuming production, the production schedule will exceed 105,000 tons, and the lithium salt exports from Chile in January increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, corresponding to a record - high import volume in China in March. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in the peak season in March. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment in March [5]. - Futures level: Before the holiday, the main capital left the market, and the overall atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector was weak. The volatility of lithium carbonate remained at a high level, with large ups and downs. The positions and volatility need to further decline to return to a normal market. Prudent operation is recommended [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Demand Analysis 3.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Domestic market: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 29% and 28.2%, and a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7 percentage points higher than the previous year. It is expected that the sales volume in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In January 2026, affected by the expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy at the end of 2025, there was an overdraft effect, but the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers still achieved positive growth, which was also due to the late Spring Festival and export [11]. - Global market: In 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to December increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. The sales volume in Europe increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, while that in the United States decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million. The United States cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1, resulting in a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still have subsidies for new energy vehicles and carbon emission requirements, which stimulated sales growth this year. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [16]. 3.1.2 Energy Storage Market - In December 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to optimize the power medium - and long - term price formation mechanism. SMM statistics show that the cumulative production of energy storage cells in China in 2025 was 529.4 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 54%. The inventory of energy storage cells was at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle was extended. The production schedule of energy storage cells in January increased by 1% month - on - month, and decreased by 8.8% in February [21]. 3.1.3 Production Schedule - SMM's January production: For batteries, the month - on - month decrease was 6.2%, with a 5.5% decrease in ternary batteries and a 5.6% decrease in lithium iron phosphate batteries. For cells, the month - on - month decrease in power cells was 5.2%, and the month - on - month increase in energy storage cells was 0.8%. For cathodes, the month - on - month decrease in ternary cathode materials was 0.9%, and the month - on - month decrease in lithium iron phosphate was 1.8%. The month - on - month decrease in electrolyte was 6.4%. - SMM's February - March production schedule: For batteries, the month - on - month decrease in February was 11%, and the month - on - month increase in March was 23%. For cathodes, the month - on - month decrease in ternary cathode materials in February was 15%, and the month - on - month increase in March was 21%. The month - on - month decrease in lithium iron phosphate in February was 11%, and the month - on - month increase in March was 15%. The month - on - month decrease in electrolyte in February was 10%, and the month - on - month increase in March was 22% [26]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Production Schedule - In January, due to the maintenance of some smelters, the production schedule decreased by 1.2% month - on - month. In February, more maintenance is expected, and the production schedule range given by multiple consulting agencies is 82,000 - 89,000 tons. In March, it is generally expected to increase to over 105,000 tons. SMM statistics show that the domestic lithium carbonate production from January to December was 970,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44% [31]. 3.2.2 Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials shows different trends. For example, there was a reduction in production in Jiangxi, an increase in production by contract manufacturers, and the suspension of production by Zangge [33]. 3.2.3 Supply in January - In January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,893 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59%. The export to China was 16,950 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44%. The total export of lithium sulfate from Chile to China in January 2026 was 27,834 tons, a month - on - month increase of 475.32% and a year - on - year increase of 1222.91% [42]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Balance Estimation No specific quantitative analysis of supply - demand balance estimation is provided in the text other than the graph. 3.3.2 Inventory Reduction in the Off - season This week, SMM statistics show that the social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2019 tons, while the smelter production reduction was only 850 tons, indicating strong demand [45].