宁证期货今日早评-20260209

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Core Views - PVC market price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short term due to high production, holiday inventory accumulation, and weak downstream demand [1]. - Gold is affected by the ongoing US - Iran negotiations, with reduced risk - aversion sentiment and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - The coking coal fundamentals are expected to remain healthy, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely due to capital sentiment [3]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure but will oscillate in the short term due to inventory pressure, supply uncertainties, and macro - expectations [3]. - Rebar prices will oscillate in the short term as demand will seasonally bottom out, supply may decline, and there are macro - disturbances before the Two Sessions [4]. - Short - term pig prices have limited downward space, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts, while focusing on the slaughter volume and sow reduction [4]. - Palm oil prices will maintain a high - level oscillation with a rising price center, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and crude oil trends [5]. - Soybean meal prices are stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential rebounds and external soybean prices [5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term with high domestic production, falling downstream demand, and rising port inventories [6]. - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend in the short term due to high inventory, weak demand, and new - capacity pressure [7]. - Crude oil is recommended to be shorted in the short term, and the market will mainly follow geopolitical fluctuations before the new OPEC+ policy in March [8]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate as investment increases may weaken the demand for monetary easing, but there is insufficient impetus for short - term direction selection [8]. - PX is expected to oscillate weakly as demand weakens during the Spring Festival and supply is high [10]. - Silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [10]. - Natural rubber prices will oscillate in a range due to the tightening supply and weakening demand [11]. - Copper prices will oscillate before the Spring Festival as supply disruptions ease and demand is weak [11]. - Aluminum prices will oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [12]. Summary by Commodity PVC - Price: 4760 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Capacity utilization: 78.93%, up 0.19% [1]. - Social inventory: 120.64 tons, up 2.45% [1]. - Production profit: - 744 yuan/ton for calcium - carbide - based PVC and 21 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [1]. - Downstream开工率: 37%, unchanged from the previous week [1]. Gold - The US - Iran nuclear negotiations are in progress, reducing risk - aversion sentiment and being bearish for gold [1]. Coking Coal - National average ton - coke profit: - 10 yuan/ton; different regions have different profit levels [3]. - Domestic coal production will decline during the holiday, and imports are also expected to fall, while demand is supported [3]. Iron Ore - Inventory: 10316.64 tons, up 348.05 tons [3]. - Daily consumption: 282.24 tons, up 1.29 tons [3]. - Inventory - consumption ratio: 36.55 days, up 1.07 days [3]. Rebar - Blast furnace开工率: 79.53%, up 0.53 percentage points [4]. - Iron - making capacity utilization: 85.69%, up 0.22 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability: 39.39%, unchanged [4]. - Daily hot - metal output: 228.58 tons, up 0.60 tons [4]. Pig - Average slaughter weight: 123.26 kg, down 0.31 kg [4]. - Slaughter开工率: 41.93%, up 3.05% [4]. - Breeding profit: - 0.39 yuan/head for purchased piglets and 17.88 yuan/head for self - bred and self - raised pigs, both down [4]. - Piglet price: 357.62 yuan/head, down 8.09 yuan/head [4]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil production from February 1 - 5, 2026, increased by 7.65% month - on - month [5]. Soybean Meal - Spot prices in different regions increased by 10 yuan/ton [5]. - Inventory: over 90 tons, up 94% year - on - year [5]. Methanol - Price: 2207 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [6]. - Port inventory: 147.21 tons, up 1.46 tons [6]. - Production enterprise inventory: 36.83 tons, down 13.16% [6]. - Order backlog: 28.71 tons, up 8.05% [6]. - Capacity utilization: 92.26%, up 1.05% [6]. - Downstream capacity utilization: 70.07%, up 1.23% [6]. Soda Ash - Price: 1227 yuan/ton, relatively stable [7]. - Weekly output: 77.43 tons, down 1.22% [7]. - Manufacturer inventory: 158.11 tons, up 2.39% [7]. - Float glass开工率: 71.86%, unchanged [7]. - Float glass price: 1106 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - Float glass inventory: 5306.4 ten - thousand heavy boxes, up 0.95% [7]. Crude Oil - US online drilling rigs: 412, the highest since December last year, up 1 from the previous week and down 68 from the same period last year [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The State Council meeting promotes investment, which may weaken the demand for monetary easing and is bearish for the bond market [8]. PX - Capacity utilization: 89.87%, with Zhejiang Petrochemical's reformer shutting down and reducing load [9]. - Capacity adjustment: 4313 tons after capacity changes [9]. - Polyester capacity utilization: 76.98% [10]. Silver - US consumer confidence index rises, which is bullish for silver [10]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices: 59.3 Thai baht/kg for glue and 54 Thai baht/kg for cup rubber [11]. - Tire factory capacity utilization: 72.09% for semi - steel tires and 60.45% for all - steel tires, both down [11]. Copper - The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile ended, and supply disruptions are reduced [11]. Aluminum - January 2026 average full cost: 16100 yuan/ton, down 2.2% [12].