棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260209

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend before the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 14,580 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.21% and a night - session closing price of 14,620 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; CY2605 closed at 20,405 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decline and a night - session closing price of 20,390 yuan/ton with a 0.07% decline; ICE US cotton 3 closed at 61.07 cents/pound with a 1.15% decline. The trading volume of CF2605 was 356,519 lots, a decrease of 112,287 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,036,886 lots, a decrease of 3,107 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 7,245 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 11,165 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,575, an increase of 75 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,185, a decrease of 98. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 7, a decrease of 7 [2] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,704 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 16,077 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 16,108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan from the previous day; the 3128B index was 16,025 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,455 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,083 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan from the previous day [2] - Spread Data: The CF3 - 5 spread was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day [2] Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The basis of domestic cotton spot is generally stable. The lower sales basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value of 4 and above is around CF05 + 1200, and most quotes are above CF05 + 1250. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North - South Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30 in Shandong and Henan warehouses with micronaire value above 4 and impurity within 3 is mostly between CF05 + 1600 - 1750 [3] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The quotation of pure - cotton yarn is generally stable, and the pre - holiday trading atmosphere continues to be light. Small - scale spinning enterprises mostly enter the holiday period on weekends. Most spinning enterprises only maintain production for existing orders, and some enterprises have completed the pre - holiday production [3] - US Cotton: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued to decline. Due to the rapid increase in warehouse receipts, ICE cotton faces delivery pressure and technical selling pressure in the short term [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a neutral trend [4]