申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall market is expected to continue the staged positive pattern in February. It is in the "Spring Market" window period, with the release of policy dividends at the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan", clear profit expectations for main lines such as AI and going global, and seasonal recovery on the consumption side and implementation of investment projects, which will further boost market confidence. However, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, there may be significant fluctuations in overseas capital markets during the holiday, especially geopolitical risks, so potential disturbances need to be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with decreases of -31.80, -29.40, -29.20, and -29.20 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 21,296.00, 70,073.00, 19,501.00, and 7,170.00 respectively, and the positions were 31,336.00, 156,652.00, 75,925.00, and 30,103.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 445.00, -4,936.00, 646.00, and 652.00 respectively [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with decreases of -22.60, -24.40, -21.40, and -23.80 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 10,090.00, 34,178.00, 7,642.00, and 3,786.00 respectively, and the positions were 13,763.00, 59,121.00, 25,416.00, and 10,817.00 respectively. The changes in positions were -47.00, -1,136.00, 885.00, and 739.00 respectively [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with decreases of -15.60, -19.40, -22.00, and -31.60 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 30,849.00, 113,205.00, 39,951.00, and 15,096.00 respectively, and the positions were 35,365.00, 146,089.00, 95,540.00, and 41,648.00 respectively. The changes in positions were -1,617.00, -3,835.00, -2,261.00, and 505.00 respectively [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with decreases of -58.20, -65.80, -66.20, and -86.80 for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next respectively. The trading volumes were 38,635.00, 147,053.00, 39,470.00, and 17,497.00 respectively, and the positions were 52,205.00, 187,915.00, 109,419.00, and 56,496.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 1,058.00, 981.00, 1,394.00, and 2,054.00 respectively [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were -2.20, -0.80, -23.20, and -36.00 respectively, compared to the previous values of -6.40, -2.20, -24.80, and -38.00 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with decreases of -0.57, -0.69, 0.00, and -0.20 respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 202.72, 46.79, 218.64, and 281.08 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5,057.60, 1,336.06, 4,183.73, and 4,445.90 respectively [1]. - Industry Indexes: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption sectors had increases of 0.86%, 0.61%, -0.22%, and -0.57% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had decreases of -1.91%, -0.30%, -0.69%, and -0.34% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors had decreases of -2.60% and -0.23% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts compared to the CSI 300 index were -3.80, -6.00, -33.40, and -83.80 respectively, compared to the day - before - yesterday values of 1.18, -5.22, -34.42, and -85.22 [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts compared to the SSE 50 index were -0.86, -1.66, -4.46, and -36.66 respectively, compared to the day - before - yesterday values of 4.59, 2.39, -2.41, and -31.01 [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts compared to the CSI 500 index were -5.81, -29.01, -130.81, and -246.41 respectively, compared to the day - before - yesterday values of -1.11, -25.91, -133.91, and -245.91 [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts compared to the CSI 1000 index were -24.77, -60.77, -220.77, and -395.97 respectively, compared to the day - before - yesterday values of 9.72, -28.28, -187.88, and -348.08 [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had changes of -0.25%, -0.33%, 0.28%, and -0.73% respectively compared to the day before yesterday [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had changes of -1.21%, 0.81%, 1.97%, and 0.94% respectively compared to the day before yesterday [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - Market Sentiment: "Holding stocks through the holiday" is the mainstream suggestion of institutions, based on the review of the historical "Spring Festival effect" and the comprehensive assessment of the current economic expectations, liquidity environment, and risk preferences. Many brokerages believe that before the festival, attention should be paid to balance and defense, and after the festival, focus on growth and industrial trends [2]. - Market Events: This week, important domestic events include the release of China's January CPI and PPI on February 11, the possible release of credit data such as new loans and social financing, the announcement of the results of the fourth - quarter 2025 Hang Seng Index series review on February 13, and the continuation of the Spring Festival red - envelope war among technology giants. International events include the release of the delayed US January non - farm payrolls and inflation data, a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran, and the Cannes World Artificial Intelligence Summit on February 12. Many companies such as McDonald's, Coca - Cola, SMIC, and NetEase will disclose their latest financial reports [2]. - Industry Trends: Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that in the next three years, space will become the most economical place to deploy AI. He believes that the number of "simulated digital humans" will far exceed that of humans in the future. This year, AI may achieve a full - scale digital simulation of human capabilities, which will completely change many industries. Musk also warned about the US debt problem [2]. - Financial Supervision: Li Yunze, Secretary of the Party Committee of the Financial Regulatory Administration, led a team to conduct research in Liaoning, emphasizing the need to guide banking and insurance institutions to do a good job in the "five major articles" of finance, increase financial supply to local major projects and weak links, and support the high - quality development of Liaoning's economy [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Real Estate: The Jiangsu provincial government held a symposium for real - estate practitioners. Governor Liu Xiaotao emphasized the need to control the increment, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, revitalize and utilize existing land, promote measures such as "talent housing vouchers" and "trading old houses for new ones", and support the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises to promote the stable and healthy development of the real - estate market [2]. - Banking: Near the Spring Festival, many banks, mainly city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and village and town banks, have launched special deposit and large - value certificate of deposit products and raised deposit interest rates on a phased basis, which is a phased and differentiated deposit - attracting behavior, not a reversal of the interest - rate cycle. State - owned large - scale banks and national joint - stock banks have basically remained unchanged [2]. - Logistics: Many express delivery companies such as China Post, SF Express, and JD Logistics have announced that they will ensure express delivery services during the Spring Festival, but some may charge a "resource adjustment fee" and the timeliness may be slightly slower [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - Market Performance: The three major US indexes rose, while the stock index fell in the previous trading day. The petroleum and petrochemical sector led the rise, and the food and beverage sector led the decline. The market turnover was 2.16 trillion yuan. On February 5, the margin trading balance decreased by 11.831 billion yuan to 2,664.067 billion yuan [2]. - Outlook: In February, the overall market is expected to continue the staged positive pattern. It is in the "Spring Market" window period, with the release of policy dividends at the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan", clear profit expectations for main lines such as AI and going global, and seasonal recovery on the consumption side and implementation of investment projects, which will further boost market confidence. However, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, there may be significant fluctuations in overseas capital markets during the holiday, especially geopolitical risks, so potential disturbances need to be vigilant [2].