国新国证期货早报-20260209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 6, the A - share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.73%. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 30.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and macro - economic factors. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On February 6, the A - share market declined, and the CSI 300 index was weak and volatile, closing at 4643.60, a decrease of 26.82 compared to the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On February 6, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1703.0, a decrease of 45.0; the coking coal weighted index was range - bound, closing at 1149.3 yuan, a decrease of 41.7 [2][3]. - Coke: Coking profit is average, daily production slightly decreased, inventory increased slightly. Trade procurement may improve after the first price increase. Overall, carbon supply is abundant, downstream iron - making is in the off - season, steel profit is average, and there is strong pressure on raw material prices [4]. - Coking coal: Mongolian coal customs clearance is 1350 vehicles. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions decreased gradually, but the transaction price increased due to the rise in the futures price. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly while production - end inventory decreased slightly. Winter storage demand is coming to an end [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by global oversupply, US sugar oscillated slightly lower on Friday. Zhengzhou sugar contract 2605 oscillated slightly higher in the night session on Friday. As of the week ending February 3, speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 40,734 contracts to 214,478 contracts [4]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly lower on Friday. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory was 124,580 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous period; the futures warehouse receipts were 112,070 tons, an increase of 1140 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 52,819 tons, a decrease of 4435 tons; the futures warehouse receipts were 51,004 tons, a decrease of 2621 tons. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on February 6, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly. After the China - US leaders' phone call, the market expects China to increase soybean purchases from the US, which may reduce the inventory pressure of US soybeans. As of the week ending January 29, US soybean export sales increased by 437,400 tons, in line with expectations. Brazilian soybeans are in the early stage of harvest, with a harvest rate of over 10%, and the expected production is above 181 million tons, which helps to reduce the expected production decline in Argentina due to local drought. - Domestically, on February 6, the main soybean meal contract 2605 closed at 2735 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%. The domestic soybean market has a loose supply. In the last week of January, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills reached a high of 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal output increased. At the end of the month, the soybean meal inventory slightly rebounded to about 900,000 tons. It is recommended to focus on South American weather changes and soybean arrival volume [6]. Live Pigs - On February 6, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the previous day. In terms of supply, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still high. As the Spring Festival approaches, the daily slaughter plan of farmers increases, and there is an oversupply of suitable - weight pigs. In terms of demand, consumer demand has entered the seasonal peak, and residents' stockpiling for the Spring Festival increases, providing short - term support for pig prices. In the medium term, the inventory of breeding sows and the replenishment of piglets are both at a high level, and the market supply exceeds demand. It is necessary to focus on the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the realization of peak - season demand [6]. Shanghai Copper - On February 6, the main Shanghai copper contract (CU2603) opened lower, fluctuated widely, and closed down 2.34%, at 100,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2400 yuan from the previous settlement. The intraday range was 97,920 - 101,420 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 3.5%, and the trading volume was 2.673 million lots. LME and SHFE inventories continued to rise, and domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, increasing short - term supply pressure. Globally, risk appetite declined, US technology stocks tumbled, and crude oil prices fell. Weak US employment data raised recession concerns, leading to the selling of risk assets. Before the Spring Festival, downstream demand was weak, processing enterprises gradually shut down, and spot transactions were light. However, there are China's copper concentrate strategic and commercial reserve policies [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,620 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 75 lots compared to the previous day. Textile enterprises had a high pre - holiday operating rate and made rigid purchases on a need - to - use basis [6]. Iron Ore - On February 6, the main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and declined, with a decrease of 1.23%, closing at 760.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to increase month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume increased slightly, and port inventory continued to accumulate. As the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of steel mills neared the end, the growth space of molten iron was limited, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [6]. Asphalt - On February 6, the main asphalt contract 2603 oscillated and closed up, with an increase of 0.92%, closing at 3386 yuan. Asphalt supply remained low, refinery inventory pressure was not high, terminal demand continued to decline, and pre - holiday spot transactions were light. The short - term asphalt price showed an oscillating trend [6]. Log - The main log contract 2603 opened at 802 on Friday, with a minimum of 780.5, a maximum of 802.5, and closed at 784, with a reduction of 1932 lots in positions. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the support from the spot market and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 6, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port coniferous log inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, reaching a 15 - and - a - half - month low. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and the support from macro - expectations and market sentiment [6][8]. Steel - The domestic construction steel market showed a "weak and stable" pattern, with narrowing price fluctuations. As the Spring Festival approached, construction projects across the country basically entered the final and shutdown stages, and terminal procurement demand decreased. Market transactions were mainly sporadic rigid demand and a small amount of winter - storage resource circulation among traders. The daily trading volume of national construction steel continued to decline, and the market was generally in a state of "having prices but no transactions", and the demand's driving effect on prices temporarily disappeared [8]. Alumina - On the raw material side, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually decreasing, and domestic bauxite supply is gradually sufficient. Coupled with the relatively high raw material inventory of alumina plants, the purchasing demand is weak, so the bauxite price has loosened, and the cost support for alumina has weakened. On the supply side, the alumina futures market performed well, driving the production enthusiasm of smelters, and the operating rate has increased. The current domestic supply is still relatively large, and the industrial inventory is slightly accumulating. On the demand side, the newly put - into - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum gradually increases the demand for alumina, but due to the industry's capacity ceiling, the increase is limited, and the raw material consumption generally increases steadily [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, on the supply side, the price of raw material alumina is at a low level. Although the aluminum price has回调, the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is still good. Coupled with the high start - stop cost of smelters, the production operation remains at a high and stable level, and the operating capacity has increased slightly, but limited by the industry ceiling, the increase is limited, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is generally stable. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises made pre - holiday stockpiling at low prices as the aluminum price回调. As the stockpiling nears the end and affected by the long - holiday shutdown, downstream demand may gradually weaken. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly improved demand, and the industrial inventory accumulates seasonally [8].