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Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is highly uncertain, and oil prices have stopped falling and risen, providing support for the oil and fat sector. The Indonesian government plans to cancel the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026 due to factors such as funding and technology, but related research work is still ongoing. The US Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biodiesel policy in early March, maintaining the biofuel blending obligation at 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons and abandoning the plan to punish the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials. The US 45Z proposed rule maintains the tax credit scope for North American raw materials [3]. - High - frequency data from various institutions show that the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month in January, and export demand continued to improve. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in January, with imports reaching 766,000 tons, a 51% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will decline in the first quarter, providing support for prices. Reuters' forecast shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will drop to 2.91 million tons, pending the release of the MPOB report. Before the Spring Festival, the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and the overall trading is light. The number of ship purchases for February shipments is relatively large year - on - year, and it is expected that domestic inventory will increase. The improvement of China - Canada trade relations will lead to the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports starting in March, and the crushing of Australian rapeseed will gradually start, increasing the long - term supply of rapeseed oil [4][43]. - Macroscopically, Wash has been nominated as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the employment market is relatively weak, the US dollar index has stopped falling and rebounded, but its momentum is slowing down; oil prices have stopped falling and risen, and attention should be paid to the further development of the US - Iran situation. Fundamentally, attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the US biodiesel policy. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will enter a de - stocking cycle in the first quarter, providing support for prices, pending the release of the MPOB report. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate and adjust in February, with support at the bottom [4][44]. Summary by Directory I. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - Market Trend: Since January, the oil and fat sector has fluctuated and strengthened. With the gradual fermentation of multiple positive factors, the oils and fats have strengthened and accelerated, but with the ebb of the sentiment in the metal and crude oil markets, there has been a significant decline and adjustment in the oils and fats recently. In the domestic market, at the end of January, the palm oil 05 contract rose 656 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, a 7.64% increase; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 420 to close at 8,282 yuan/ton, a 5.34% increase; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 293 to close at 9,380 yuan/ton, a 3.22% increase. In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 159 to close at 4,209 ringgit/ton, a 3.93% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 5.17 to close at 53.72 cents/pound, a 10.65% increase; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 45 to close at 647.4 Canadian dollars/ton, a 7.47% increase. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 670 to close at 9,260 yuan/ton, a 7.80% increase; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong rose 360 to close at 8,600 yuan/ton, a 4.37% increase; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 110 to close at 10,140 yuan/ton, a 1.10% increase [9]. - Price Fluctuation Reasons: In early January, high - frequency data initially showed a decrease in the production of Malaysian palm oil and an improvement in export demand, supporting the price to fluctuate and rise. The December MPOB report showed an unexpected inventory build - up, with a neutral - to - bearish impact. Due to factors such as funding and technology, the Indonesian government announced the cancellation of the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Coupled with the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the improvement of trade relations, the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports led to a significant weakening of rapeseed oil, dragging down the oils and fats. In the second half of the month, palm oil started to rise. Firstly, the high - frequency data on the supply and demand of the origin continued to be released, confirming the expectation of tight supply and demand, supporting the price to strengthen; the upcoming release of the US biodiesel policy boosted the positive expectation; Trump threatened to impose a 100% tax on Canada, and the Canadian side stated that it had not signed a free - trade agreement with China, which led to an increase in the sentiment of the rapeseed sector; the tense situation in Iran escalated, and oil prices fluctuated and rose; and the hot market sentiment of commodities drove palm oil to rise strongly. By the end of the month, the panic sentiment in precious metals fermented and retreated significantly, cooling the commodity market, and the price fell and adjusted from a high level [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis - MPOB Report: The data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) for December showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was 3.05 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase, slightly higher than market expectations; the export volume was 1.317 million tons, an 8.52% month - on - month increase; the production was 1.83 million tons, a 5.76% month - on - month decrease; the demand for Malaysian palm oil in December was 331,000 tons, compared with 374,000 tons in the previous month [16]. - Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports: According to the latest data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from January 1 - 31, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 13.78% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, and the production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month compared with the same period last month. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in January decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia decreased by 16.65%, in Sabah by 8.96%, in Sarawak by 17.07%, and in Borneo by 11.09%. According to the data from the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from January 1 - 31, 2026 was 1,463,069 tons, a 17.93% increase compared with the 1,240,587 tons exported in the same period last month. According to the data from the Malaysian independent inspection agency AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31, 2026 was 1,375,718 tons, a 14.89% increase compared with the 1,197,434 tons exported in the same period last month. According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31, 2026 was 944,885 tons, a 5.58% decrease compared with the 1,000,703 tons exported in the same period last month [25]. - Indonesia Situation: According to the data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), in October 2025, the production of Indonesian palm oil (including palm kernel oil) was 4.76 million tons, a 460,000 - ton month - on - month increase from 4.3 million tons in September; in October 2024, the palm oil production was 4.84 million tons, an 80,000 - ton year - on - year decrease, and the five - year average was 4.89 million tons; from January to October 2025, the total production of Indonesian palm oil was 48.09 million tons, a 4.31 - million - ton year - on - year increase from 43.78 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of exports, in October 2025, the export volume of Indonesian palm oil was 2.8 million tons, a 60,000 - ton month - on - month increase from 2.2 million tons in September; in October 2024, the export volume of palm oil was 2.89 million tons, a 90,000 - ton year - on - year decrease; from January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of Indonesian palm oil was 27.7 million tons, a 2.86 - million - ton year - on - year increase from 24.84 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of domestic consumption, in October 2025, the domestic consumption volume was 2.23 million tons, an 180,000 - ton month - on - month decrease from 2.05 million tons in September; in October 2024, the palm oil consumption volume was 2.08 million tons, a 150,000 - ton year - on - year increase, and the five - year average was 1.84 million tons; from January to October 2025, the cumulative domestic palm oil consumption volume was 20.69 million tons, a 5.3% year - on - year increase from 19.64 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, in October 2025, the palm oil inventory was 2.33 million tons, compared with 2.59 million tons in the previous month and 2.5 million tons in the same period last year [29]. - India's Vegetable Oil Imports: According to the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), in December 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.36 million tons, compared with 1.15 million tons in November; in December 2024, the imports were 1.23 million tons, and the five - year average was 1.33 million tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of Indian vegetable oil were 15.69 million tons, a 660,000 - ton year - on - year decrease from 16.35 million tons in the same period last year. For different oils, in December 2025, India's palm oil imports were 510,000 tons, compared with 630,000 tons in the previous month and 500,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 770,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of Indian palm oil were 7.38 million tons, a 1.21 - million - ton year - on - year decrease from 8.59 million tons in the same period last year. In December 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 510,000 tons, compared with 370,000 tons in the previous month and 460,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 320,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of Indian soybean oil were 5.46 million tons, a 1.44 - million - ton year - on - year increase from 4.02 million tons in the same period last year. In December 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 350,000 tons, compared with 143,000 tons in the previous month and 271,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 240,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of Indian sunflower oil were 2.81 million tons, a 930,000 - ton year - on - year decrease from 3.74 million tons in the same period last year [31][32]. - China's Oil and Fat Imports: According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in December 2025, China's palm oil imports were 280,000 tons, compared with 330,000 tons in the previous month and 320,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 420,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative domestic palm oil imports were 2.58 million tons, a 230,000 - ton year - on - year decrease from 2.81 million tons in the same period last year. In December 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 220,000 tons, compared with 166,000 tons in the previous month and 213,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 160,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative domestic rapeseed oil imports were 2.13 million tons, a 250,000 - ton year - on - year increase from 1.88 million tons in the same period last year. In December 2025, China's sunflower oil imports were 65,000 tons, compared with 49,000 tons in the previous month and 47,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 166,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative domestic sunflower oil imports were 520,000 tons, compared with 1.086 million tons in the same period last year. In general, in December 2025, the imports of the above three major oils and fats were 565,000 tons, compared with 545,000 tons in the previous month, 580,000 tons in December 2024, and the five - year average was 746,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of the three major oils and fats were 5.23 million tons, a 540,000 - ton year - on - year decrease from 5.77 million tons in the same period last year [35][36]. - Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory: According to the data from My Agri - data, as of the week of January 30, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils and fats in key regions across the country was 1.8942 million tons, a 58,600 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 30,600 - ton decrease from the same period last year; among them, the soybean oil inventory was 946,800 tons, a 9,200 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 48,500 - ton increase from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 701,400 tons, a 40,900 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 210,900 - ton increase from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, an 8,500 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 290,000 - ton decrease from the same period last year [38]. III. Summary and Outlook - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is highly uncertain, and oil prices have stopped falling and risen, providing support for the oil and fat sector. The Indonesian government plans to cancel the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026 due to factors such as funding and technology, but related research work is still ongoing. The US Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biodiesel policy in early March, maintaining the biofuel blending obligation at 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons and abandoning the plan to punish the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials. The US 45Z proposed rule maintains the tax credit scope for North American raw materials [43]. - High - frequency data from various institutions show that the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month in January, and export demand continued to improve. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in January, with imports reaching 766,000 tons, a 51% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will decline in the first quarter, providing support for prices. Reuters' forecast shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will drop to 2.91 million tons, pending the release of the M