出口前景提振外盘，连粕整体震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The outlook for the US Department of Agriculture's February report shows limited adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, a slight increase in Brazilian soybean production, and basically unchanged production in Argentina, with an expected neutral impact. Attention should be paid to the new - season US soybean planting area report released by the US Agricultural Outlook Forum this month. As of the end of January, the US soybean export sales progress was 80%, slightly slower than the same period last year. China has achieved its goal of purchasing 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans, and the purchase pace has slowed down. Recently, Trump said that China will additionally purchase 800,000 tons of soybeans this year, boosting the external market. Follow - up purchase trends should be monitored. The US soybean crushing volume continues to increase. Next, attention should be paid to the release of US biodiesel policies. Current bullish expectations support the US soybean oil to be oscillating strongly [3][72]. - Argentina experienced drought concerns in late January, but the recent precipitation forecast has increased, the crop rating is good, and the production forecast remains at the normal level. Brazil's soybean harvesting progress has exceeded 10%, and the subsequent progress will accelerate. Institutions expect the export volume in February to reach 11.42 million tons, a significant increase compared to the same period in previous years. The arrival of domestic soybeans will increase from March to April, and the tight supply expectation will continue to improve [3][72]. - China's soybean purchase plans for the February - March shipping schedules are basically completed, and the purchase plan for the April shipping schedule is about 70% complete, with the overall rhythm being relatively smooth. One week before the Spring Festival, the peak stocking period has passed. The oil - mill startup and crushing rate are expected to gradually decline in the next two weeks. The purchase and trading volume of soybean meal has slowed down, while feed enterprises are still actively picking up goods, and the physical inventory of soybean meal has increased. Currently, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a high level compared to the same period. Market news indicates that the auction of imported soybeans will resume after the Spring Festival, and the supply remains relatively loose [3][72]. - In summary, it is expected that the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to oscillate in the short term. The high - yield pattern in South America remains unchanged, and as the harvest progresses, the loose supply situation will become apparent. In the medium to long term, the price center is expected to oscillate downward. Next, attention should be paid to the multi - factor effects of post - festival restocking, imported soybean auctions, new US soybean purchases, and the Agricultural Outlook Forum report [3][72][73]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since January, both US soybeans and soybean meal have shown range - bound oscillations. At the end of January, the soybean meal contract 05 rose 18 to close at 2,767 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.66%. The spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 40 to close at 3,120 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.3%. The CBOT March US soybean contract rose 17 to close at 1,064.25 cents per bushel, an increase of 1.62%. After the New Year's Day, the purchasing sentiment recovered, and the trading volume increased. With the expected decrease in the arrival of soybeans in the first quarter and a tight supply expectation, the spot price was relatively strong, and the soybean meal price oscillated upward after the festival. In mid - January, the futures price oscillated downward. The restart of the domestic imported soybean auction, with a total of 1.14 million tons of the released volume being fully traded, alleviated the tight supply expectation for the first quarter. The January USDA report was generally bearish. Under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the improvement in trade relations between China and Canada and the reopening of the Canadian rapeseed import window, the price declined. In late January, the soybean meal price oscillated upward and then declined. The hype about the drought in Argentina intensified, the pre - festival stocking demand increased, and the strong sentiment in the metal sector drove the commodity market to strengthen, pushing the futures price to the previous high range. However, the high - yield expectation in Brazil remains unchanged, the export supply has increased, the US soybean export sales rhythm has slowed down, the precipitation forecast in Argentina has increased, and the stocking is coming to an end. Recently, the Dalian soybean meal futures have oscillated downward [9]. 3.2 International Situation 3.2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The January USDA report shows that the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 425.68 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons compared to the December estimate. The global soybean crushing demand is 366.43 million tons, an increase of 1.19 million tons compared to the December estimate. The global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 124.4 million tons, an increase of 2.04 million tons compared to the previous month. The stock - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%, indicating a slightly looser supply - demand situation [11]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The January USDA report shows that the US soybean balance sheet is generally bearish. In the 2025/2026 season, the US soybean yield per acre remains unchanged at 53 bushels, and the production is slightly increased to 4.262 billion bushels. Due to the good crushing performance, the crushing demand is increased by 15 million bushels to 257 million bushels. The export is slower than the same period last year, and concerns remain, so the export demand is decreased by 60 million bushels to 157.5 million bushels. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 350 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 8.22%, indicating a looser situation compared to the previous month's estimate [14]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to the data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 224.991 million bushels, a 4.1% increase compared to November. Compared with December 2024, it increased by 8.9%. From September to December in the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 866.542 million bushels, an 11.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/2026 season is 5.11%. At the end of November 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.686 billion pounds. Based on the calculation results of the USDA's crushing weekly report, as of the week ending January 23, 2026, the US soybean crushing gross profit was $2.54 per bushel. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at the Illinois soybean processing plant was $300.02 per short ton, and the truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 52.96 cents per pound. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.69 per bushel [17]. 3.2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 819,000 tons. The cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 33.854 million tons, with a sales progress of 79.0%, compared to 42.683 million tons in the same period last year, with an overall progress of 83.6%. The net purchase volume of China in that week was 233,000 tons. China's cumulative purchase volume this year is 9.65 million tons. Considering the purchases from unknown destinations, China's total purchase of US soybeans this year is 12 million tons [19]. 3.2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The January USDA report shows that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is increased by 3 million tons to 178 million tons, mainly due to the suitable weather conditions during the growth and development stage of Brazilian soybeans. The export demand is increased by 1.5 million tons to 114 million tons, and the crushing demand is increased by 1 million tons to 60 million tons. The ending inventory is 36.91 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 20.69%. According to Brazilian official export data, the Brazilian soybean export volume in December 2025 was 3.38 million tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative Brazilian soybean export volume was 108.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.38 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Cereal Exporters predicts that the Brazilian soybean export volume in February will reach 11.42 million tons. As of January 31, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, and the harvesting rate was 11.4% [22][23][27]. 3.2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The January USDA report shows that the Argentine soybean production in the 2025/2026 season remains unchanged at 48.5 million tons, the export demand remains at 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand remains at 41 million tons, the ending inventory is 22.84 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 40.46%. As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the Argentine soybean sowing work is nearly completed, with 99.5% of the planned sowing area completed. The latest forecast shows that the precipitation in the Argentine production area will increase in the next two weeks, alleviating the drought concerns. As of the week ending January 28, the proportion of soybeans with good or normal crop conditions was 84%, still higher than the same period last year [29][36]. 3.3 Domestic Situation 3.3.1 Imported Soybeans and Other Situations - According to the data from the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean import volume in December 2025 was 8.04 million tons, of which 5.66 million tons were from Brazil, accounting for 70.4%, and 1.65 million tons were from Argentina, accounting for 20.5%. In 2025, the total soybean import volume was 111.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.79 million tons. As of the week ending January 27, 2026, the purchase plan for the February shipping schedule was 9.5 million tons, with 8.86 million tons purchased, a completion rate of 93.2%. The purchase plan for the March shipping schedule was 12 million tons, with 11.59 million tons purchased, a completion rate of 96.6%. The purchase plan for the April shipping schedule was 11.5 million tons, with 6.37 million tons purchased, a completion rate of 55.4% [44]. 3.3.2 Domestic Oil - Mill Inventory - As of the week ending January 30, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.355 million tons, a decrease of 234,900 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 1.9652 million tons compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 930,400 tons, an increase of 31,800 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 449,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 3.0932 million tons, a decrease of 968,400 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 290,900 tons compared to the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 6.713 million tons, a decrease of 502,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 611,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 309,860 tons, including 57,700 tons of spot trading and 252,160 tons of forward trading. The weekly average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 194,200 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2961 million tons. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 11.33 days [48]. 3.3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - The total output of the national industrial feed was 342.253 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. Among them, the output of compound feed was 319.46 million tons, an increase of 8.8%; the output of concentrated feed was 13.381 million tons, an increase of 3.4%; and the output of additive premixed feed was 7.527 million tons, an increase of 8.3%. In terms of varieties, the output of pig feed was 166.394 million tons, an increase of 15.6%; the output of egg - laying poultry feed was 32.82 million tons, an increase of 1.4%; the output of meat - poultry feed was 100.977 million tons, an increase of 3.5%; the output of ruminant feed was 14.758 million tons, an increase of 1.8%; and the output of aquatic feed was 23.231 million tons, an increase of 2.7% [61].