铝产业链月报：风险情绪下行，供需季节性弱，铝价震荡向下调整-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - ADC12 quotes remain high and volatile. Affected by the decline in domestic prices, the import profit margin continues to narrow and once turns into a small loss, weakening the impact of imported sources on the domestic market. Downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for high - price stocking is low, with procurement mainly for rigid demand replenishment [3][4]. - In terms of alumina, there was partial production reduction and maintenance in January, involving a production capacity of about 5 million tons. However, most of these production reductions were mainly for calciner maintenance, and the production capacity will gradually resume. The inventory pressure of alumina plants increases, and the price is under pressure to fluctuate within the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton this month [3][33][90]. - For electrolytic aluminum, due to the fermentation of the Wash trade, the US dollar index rebounds, precious metals and copper decline sharply, and funds quickly flow out of the metal sector. The aluminum price is expected to adjust downward in a volatile manner in the short term, with support at 22,500 yuan/ton. In the long - term, there is a supply - demand gap for aluminum, which limits the short - term downward space of the aluminum price and provides long - term upward momentum [3][92]. - Regarding cast aluminum, the scrap aluminum market in the raw material end fluctuates widely following the primary aluminum. The cost support increases, but the supply and demand contract synchronously. It is expected that the recycled aluminum price will adjust at a high level, running within the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton this month [4][74][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - Alumina prices initially rebounded rapidly but then fell back due to oversupply. At the end of the month, they stopped falling and rebounded slightly, closing at 2,768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% [10]. - Shanghai aluminum futures rose strongly at the beginning, with the price reaching a new high of 26,185 yuan/ton and closing at 24,560 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.02%. LME aluminum prices also rose, closing at 3,135.5 US dollars/ton, a rise of 4.62% [11]. - Cast aluminum futures followed the primary aluminum price and rose, closing at 22,820 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.42% [12]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Overseas - The Fed paused rate cuts in January, and Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, which impacted global asset prices. The US labor market is slowing down, and inflation pressure is gradually easing. The US economy shows strong growth but has structural contradictions. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate. The eurozone's inflation pressure eases, the PPI decline expands, and the unemployment rate decreases slightly [16][18][19]. 3.2.2 Domestic - In 2025, China achieved its annual economic target, with GDP growing by 5.0%. In December, industrial production improved, consumption showed structural optimization but was under pressure at the end of the year, and investment was under pressure. Exports were strong, and the CPI and PPI were slightly better than expected. The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy in 2026 [20][22][24]. 3.3 Alumina Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bauxite - In January, the supply of domestic northern bauxite changed from a slight increase to a slight shortage, and the price decreased. Imported ore supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to decline [26][27]. 3.3.2 Alumina Supply - In December 2025, China's alumina production was 7.655 million tons, with an overall oversupply. In January, production reduction may increase, and the production is expected to be 7.4 million tons. In 2025, the net export volume of alumina increased significantly, but Russia's demand for Chinese alumina may decrease in the future [28][30]. 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - The exchange inventory remained between 150,000 - 160,000 tons in January, and the spot premium gradually declined [31]. 3.3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - In December 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of the alumina industry decreased. The prices of raw and auxiliary materials mainly declined, resulting in a downward trend in production costs [32]. 3.3.5 Alumina Outlook - Alumina prices are under pressure to fluctuate within the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton this month due to factors such as production capacity recovery, inventory pressure, and weakening cost support [33][90]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In December 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7846 million tons. In January 2026, it is estimated to be about 3.79 million tons. Overseas production is also expected to increase slightly. In 2025, the import and export volume of primary aluminum both increased [47][50]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - As of the end of January, the aluminum ingot inventory increased by 137,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots + aluminum rods increased by 244,000 tons. The SHFE inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [50][51]. 3.4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In January, the spot price lagged behind the futures price, with a large discount. The LME 0 - 3 spot discount initially turned into a high premium and then fell back [52]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In January, the theoretical average full cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased, and the monthly theoretical profit also increased [53]. 3.5 Cast Aluminum Market Analysis 3.5.1 Scrap Aluminum - In December, the import of scrap aluminum increased. The domestic scrap aluminum production also increased, but there were problems in the resource recycling policy. The price of scrap aluminum followed the primary aluminum, and there may be further adjustments [69]. 3.5.2 Supply - In December, the production and operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. In January, it is expected to continue to decline due to factors such as high costs, environmental protection restrictions, and weak downstream demand. The export of aluminum alloy is expected to increase in January [70][71]. 3.5.3 Consumption - In December 2025, automobile production decreased, while motorcycle sales increased [72]. 3.5.4 Spot and Inventory - As of January 30, the ADC12 spot price increased, and the cast aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased [73]. 3.5.5 Outlook - The recycled aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level, running within the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton this month [74][92]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis 3.6.1 Aluminum Processing - In January, the operating rate of most aluminum - processing sectors declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [82]. 3.6.2 Domestic Terminal Consumption - In the real estate sector, the completion area decreased, and new construction and investment were under pressure. In the new energy vehicle sector, sales increased, and exports were strong. In the power sector, investment increased, but consumption was weak in December. In the photovoltaic sector, the installed capacity increased, and exports were affected by policies. In the energy storage sector, the installed capacity increased significantly, and the policy is expected to support further growth [83][84][85][86]. 3.6.3 Aluminum Product Exports - In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The implementation of the EU CBAM may bring pressure to the export market [87]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the nomination of the new Fed chairman affects market liquidity expectations. Domestically, policies are expected to be proactive. Alumina prices are under pressure to fluctuate. Electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to adjust downward in the short term and have long - term upward momentum. Cast aluminum prices are expected to adjust at a high level [90][92].