铁矿石月报：基本面驱动不强，铁矿石震荡承压-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January, iron ore demand was primarily rigid, with increased blast furnace maintenance in steel mills and a seasonal decline in terminal demand, resulting in slight fluctuations in molten iron output. After the holiday, blast furnace复产 will drive up daily consumption, but the finished product inventory will suppress profits, and there is a high probability that the peak - season demand will fall short, with a slow recovery in molten iron output expected. The total output in February is likely to be lower than that in January due to the holiday, providing limited support on the demand side [3][45] - The iron ore supply will remain in a loose pattern. Although the shipments from mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly month - on - month, the port inventory has reached a historical high due to the delayed arrival of previous high - volume shipments. The shipments of non - mainstream mines declined due to price factors, and domestic mines were also affected by seasonal production restrictions. Although the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may disrupt shipments in the second quarter, the high inventory in the short term is difficult to alleviate, and the supply side will continue to suppress the ore price [3][45] - In the next month, iron ore is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices under oscillatory pressure. On the supply side, the shipments of overseas mainstream mines will remain high, and the port inventory pressure will still be significant. On the demand side, the resumption of production in steel mills after the holiday will be slow, the high inventory of finished products will continuously suppress profits, and the room for the recovery of molten iron output will be limited. The reference range for iron ore is 700 - 830 yuan/ton [3][45] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In January, iron ore futures first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, driven by macro sentiment, the ore price once reached around 830 yuan/ton, then declined from the high level. After the release of market sentiment, funds traded based on fundamentals again. With strong supply and weak demand in fundamentals and increasing port inventory pressure, iron ore was under pressure. On the demand side, steel mills carried out off - season maintenance of blast furnaces, terminal demand was weak, and molten iron output fluctuated slightly. On the supply side, the global shipments in January decreased, with declines in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries, but the arrival volume was still higher than the same period last year due to the previous high - volume shipments. In terms of inventory, the port inventory significantly increased by 10.51 million tons compared with the beginning of the month, and the inventory of 247 steel mills also increased by 10.22 million tons [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Mill Start - up Contraction, Focus on Restocking Rhythm before the Festival - In January, domestic blast furnace production was generally in a weakly stable state. Affected by the seasonal weakening of terminal demand before the Spring Festival, although the maintenance of steel mills increased, due to the repair of the profit per ton of mainstream long - process steel in the previous month, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate remained in the range of 80% - 85%. The average daily molten iron output of sample steel mills was about 2.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 million tons. Regionally, in North China, restricted by regular environmental protection production restrictions, the blast furnace load was maintained at 75% - 80%. In East and South China, due to the production reduction of short - process electric furnaces, some market space was freed up, and the blast furnace start - up rate increased to 88% - 90%, becoming the main highlight of production this month. In the short - process aspect, approaching the Spring Festival and with scrap steel prices at a high level, independent electric furnace plants concentrated on arranging shutdown maintenance, and the start - up rate declined significantly, having a marginal negative impact on the overall steel supply [9] - Overall, iron ore consumption in January was mainly driven by rigid demand. If the resumption of work after the holiday drives the复产 of blast furnaces, daily consumption is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to the suppression of profits by the accumulation of finished product inventory, and the short - term growth space of consumption is limited. The resumption rhythm of blast furnaces after the Spring Festival may depend on the level of finished product inventory. It is expected that the inflection point of inventory reduction will not occur until mid - to late March, and there is a high probability that this year's peak - season demand will fall short. Correspondingly, the recovery speed of molten iron output is expected to be slow. The average daily molten iron output in February may only slightly increase compared with January, but the total molten iron output in February is likely to be lower than that in January due to the holiday [9] 2.2 Overseas Iron Ore Supply Maintains a Loose Pattern - In January, iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume continued to increase, maintaining an overall loose pattern. The shipments of major mines in Australia and Brazil remained resilient. The total shipments from Australia in the whole month were about 72 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Among them, the weekly peak shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton fell below 16 million tons due to short - term port maintenance. The shipments from Brazil were about 28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The capacity release of the S11D mine in the north of Vale partially offset the impact of the rainy season in the south, and the shipment stability increased. Affected by ore price fluctuations, the shipments from non - mainstream mines such as India and South Africa decreased by 8.3% month - on - month to 12 million tons, and the resumption of production of small and medium - sized mines lacked momentum. The total global shipments were about 112 million tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The arrival volume increased by 5.1% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year to about 108 million tons due to the lagged arrival of previous high - volume shipments, significantly higher than the port clearance demand. The port inventory accelerated its accumulation, reaching a new high in the past six months. Overall, the loose supply pattern was further strengthened, which may suppress the ore price in the short term, but attention should be paid to the potential impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on shipments in the second quarter [24] 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In January, the iron ore port inventory continued to increase. The inventory at 45 ports reached 170 million tons, a month - on - month increase of more than 10 million tons, hitting a new historical high, and the overall inventory pressure significantly increased. This inventory accumulation was mainly due to the previous high - level global shipments, resulting in concentrated arrivals this month. At the same time, affected by blast furnace maintenance and weakening demand before the Spring Festival, the port clearance volume was relatively low, and the arrival volume continued to be higher than the port clearance volume, resulting in a significant net increase in inventory. Currently, the port inventory is at an absolute high level, indicating a clear loose supply pattern. In the short term, the high inventory may be the main factor suppressing the rebound of the ore price [30] 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In January, the total iron ore inventory of steel mills increased. Affected by transportation restrictions before the Spring Festival and relatively stable blast furnace production, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 10.22 million tons month - on - month to 105 million tons, and the available days of inventory rose to 35.48 days, a new high in the past three months. The inventory increase was mainly because steel mills replenished raw materials in advance to avoid logistics disruptions during the holiday, combined with concentrated port arrivals and a slowdown in the port clearance rhythm, resulting in passive inventory accumulation in the mills. Although the traditional winter storage window opened at the end of the year and steel mills had a rigid demand for restocking, restricted by weak terminal orders, poor finished product sales, and limited profit repair, the actual restocking intensity was generally mild. At the same time, the continuously high port inventory also suppressed the purchasing enthusiasm of steel mills, and most enterprises preferred to wait for price corrections to restock. The current mill inventory level can cover the production demand for 10 - 15 days after the holiday, and the restocking momentum has weakened. In the short term, steel mills will mainly digest the existing inventory, providing limited support for the upward movement of the ore price [40] 2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - Affected by low - temperature weather and the Spring Festival holiday, the overall production of domestic mines contracted. In the northern main producing areas, the temperature dropped below - 10°C, the stripping operation of open - pit mines was restricted, and the ventilation and transportation efficiency of underground mines decreased. The overall start - up rate dropped to about 55%, an 8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Some open - pit mines in Southwest and Central China did not completely shut down, but their production capacity was pre - contracted due to the return of workers before the holiday. The monthly output of domestic iron ore concentrate was about 18 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and only a slight year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The supply increment was significantly lower than that of overseas mines. In terms of inventory, affected by the slowdown in downstream procurement rhythm, the concentrate inventory of mines slightly increased, but overall, it remained within a reasonable range [42] 2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - Last month, the iron ore shipping freight first declined and then rose. As of February 3, the freight rate on the route from Dampier, Australia, to Qingdao was reported at $8.89/ton, a month - on - month increase of $0.49/ton and a growth rate of 5.8%. The freight rate on the route from Tubarao, Brazil, to Qingdao was reported at $25.21/ton, a month - on - month increase of $3.07/ton and a growth rate of 13.9%. The increase in freight was not due to strong fundamentals. On the demand side, affected by the slowdown in the restocking rhythm of steel mills before the Chinese Spring Festival, the demand for chartering ships weakened. On the supply side, the global dry bulk fleet capacity increased by 3.8% year - on - year, and the port congestion index was at a low level within the year, with improved capacity turnover efficiency and a loose market supply. At the same time, the fuel cost decreased in line with international oil prices. This phased rebound in shipping freight has limited support for the iron ore price [44] 3. Market Outlook - Demand side: In January, iron ore demand was mainly rigid, with increased blast furnace maintenance in steel mills and a seasonal decline in terminal demand, resulting in slight fluctuations in molten iron output. After the holiday, blast furnace复产 will drive up daily consumption, but the finished product inventory will suppress profits, and there is a high probability that the peak - season demand will fall short, with a slow recovery in molten iron output expected. The total output in February is likely to be lower than that in January due to the holiday, providing limited support on the demand side [45] - Supply side: The iron ore supply will remain in a loose pattern. Although the shipments from mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly month - on - month, the port inventory has reached a historical high due to the delayed arrival of previous high - volume shipments. The shipments of non - mainstream mines declined due to price factors, and domestic mines were also affected by seasonal production restrictions. Although the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may disrupt shipments in the second quarter, the high inventory in the short term is difficult to alleviate, and the supply side will continue to suppress the ore price [45] - In the next month, iron ore is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices under oscillatory pressure. On the supply side, the shipments of overseas mainstream mines will remain high, and the port inventory pressure will still be significant. On the demand side, the resumption of production in steel mills after the holiday will be slow, the high inventory of finished products will continuously suppress profits, and the room for the recovery of molten iron output will be limited. The reference range for iron ore is 700 - 830 yuan/ton [45]