宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026年2月9日）-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper futures, along with corresponding core logics. For gold, the short - term view is to wait and see; for copper, the long - term view is positive. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: Last week, the gold market was in a sharp shock and adjustment phase. The London gold spot price fluctuated greatly, closing at about $4960/ounce, and Shanghai gold closed above 1100 yuan/gram on Friday night. [3] - Market Core Contradiction: The core contradiction has shifted from pure emotional drive to a re - game of expectations for Fed policies, the rebound of the US dollar, and the long - term credit hedging logic. [3] - Influencing Factors: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman was initially seen as a hawkish signal, but due to high US government debt, the long - term tendency of a relatively loose monetary environment in the US may remain. International situation turmoil promotes the safe - haven demand for gold. The US - Iran talks have made the safe - haven demand more stable. Technically, the $5000/ounce level for long - short competition can be focused on. Near the Chinese Spring Festival, overseas volatility is uncertain and capital drive may decline. [3] - Viewpoint: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: strong; Reference view: wait and see. The core logic is that short - term panic selling has eased, and the long - term trend of de - dollarization remains unchanged. [1][3] Copper - Price Performance: Last week, copper prices bottomed out and rebounded, showing an overall shock. The Shanghai copper open interest continued to decline, and the price fluctuated between 100,000 - 105,000 yuan. [4] - Influencing Factors: The recent strength of copper prices after the correction is due to the repair of panic in the silver market and the re - pricing of the long - term structural contradiction in the global copper market and major shifts in China's industrial policies. China has stopped over 2 million tons of new copper smelting capacity and signaled to include copper concentrates in the national strategic reserve system, providing long - term industrial support for copper prices. In the short term, the near - term weakness and long - term strength pattern remains, and near the Spring Festival, capital is more willing to settle, resulting in insufficient price drive. [4] - Viewpoint: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: strong; Reference view: long - term positive. The core logic is that domestic supply contraction supports copper prices. [1][4]