五矿期货有色金属日报 2026-2-9-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the market is generally positive due to factors such as the strengthening of the US stock market, the US plan to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China's expected enhancement of copper reserves. The US consumer confidence index is better than expected. Although the newly - announced Fed Chairman has a moderately hawkish monetary policy attitude, it does not change the rhythm of continued interest rate cuts this year [4]. - For different metals, the prices are expected to show different trends. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; aluminum prices are expected to stabilize and rise; the stabilization of lead prices needs to be observed after the Spring Festival; zinc prices may follow the rise of non - ferrous metals driven by consumption expectations; tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely; nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term; the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate may continue in the short term, and the price balance will be determined by the game between upstream reluctance to sell and downstream stocking; the price of alumina is recommended to be observed; stainless steel prices are expected to rise; the price of cast aluminum alloy has strong short - term support [4][6][8][10][12][14][17][20][23][26]. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - On Friday, the US stock market rose sharply, precious metals rebounded, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. LME copper 3M closed up 1.59% at $13,060/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,490 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,700 to 183,275 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M was at a discount of $71/ton. Domestic SHFE weekly inventory increased by 16,000 to 249,000 tons, and daily warrants decreased by 500 to 160,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the futures, and the Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton. The spot import of Shanghai copper had a loss of about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,120 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - With positive sentiment in the market, and the supply of copper ore remaining tight while domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, short - term supply is relatively abundant. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 100,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,900 - $13,300/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - On Friday, sentiment improved, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum closed up 2.78% at $3,110/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,585 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 5,000 to 651,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 1,000 to 156,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory in three regions decreased month - on - month, aluminum rod inventory remained flat, the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded, and spot trading remained dull. The spot in East China was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream buyers were still willing to buy at low prices. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 to 491,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is still weak due to high prices and the off - season. However, LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for aluminum prices. With the stabilization of the US stock market and precious metals, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize and rise. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,200 - 24,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - $3,150/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.21% at 16,554 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 118,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S fell 11 to $1,949/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 173,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,400 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,425 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 35,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancellation warrants were 15,800 tons. The foreign basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 48.6 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 145.9 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 324.93 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 5 was 45,900 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons compared to February 2 [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead ore has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The inventory of waste batteries continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. As the Spring Festival approaches, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Currently, lead prices are close to the lower edge of the long - term shock range, but downstream consumption is average. Whether lead prices can stabilize needs to be observed based on the stocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [8]. Zinc Market Information - Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.18% at 24,484 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 190,600 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME zinc 3S rose 6.5 to $3,285.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 229,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,550 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 30 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 31,100 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 5 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 107,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancellation warrants were 13,300 tons. The foreign basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 20.75 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 41.1 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.077, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 2,594.5 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 5 was 118,300 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons compared to February 2 [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has begun to accumulate. The operating performance of downstream enterprises is average, and the finished product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises has risen rapidly. The domestic zinc industry shows a weak performance. However, currently, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there is still a risk of fluctuations in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI may still drive zinc prices to rise following non - ferrous metals based on consumption expectations [10]. Tin Market Information - On February 6, tin prices fell slightly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 357,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient, with constraints on the scrap end and downstream high - price wait - and - see coexisting, and short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and downstream pre - holiday stocking willingness was still not obvious, with most holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the spot market was limited [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the second decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium and long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply - demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range shock. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $45,000 - $48,000/ton [12]. Nickel Market Information - On February 6, nickel prices fell slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 131,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,400 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore at the factory was reported at $54.54/wet ton, the same as the previous day, and the arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore at the factory was reported at $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,038 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 1 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, prices have stabilized, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and short - term nickel prices are expected to mainly fluctuate widely. The reference operating range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for LME nickel 3M contracts is $16,000 - $18,000/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - Last Friday, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 132,080 yuan, a decrease of 4.89% from the previous working day and a decrease of 14.85% within the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 126,400 - 138,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 6,750 yuan (- 4.85%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 123,500 - 135,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 5.13% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 132,920 yuan, an increase of 0.11% from the previous closing price and a decrease of 10.31% within the week. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was $1,880 - $2,020/ton, with the average price decreasing by 1.27% from the previous day and a decrease of 10.34% within the week [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The risk appetite in the commodity market has declined, and the prices of popular commodities such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and lithium carbonate have fallen. Recently, due to the maintenance of salt factories, the domestic lithium carbonate output has continuously decreased, while the export of lithium sulfate from Chile in January reached a record high, and the subsequent import supply increment is obvious. The future demand expectation is strong. According to the preliminary statistics of third - party production scheduling data, affected by the Spring Festival in February, the production scheduling of the cathode link only decreased by about 11 - 15% month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate of production scheduling in the material end in March is generally greater than 50%. The short - term supply - demand tight balance of lithium carbonate is expected to continue. After the release of market sentiment risks, the game between upstream reluctance to sell and downstream stocking may determine the price balance. Recently, the commodity market has fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to wait and see carefully or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the main contract of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 122,000 - 146,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina Market Information - On February 6, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 1.19% to 2,824 yuan/ton within the day, with a total unilateral trading position of 492,800 lots, a decrease of 19,800 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 269 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 75 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warrants on Friday were reported at 218,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea remained at $61/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $58/ton [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - At the ore end, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area of bauxite in Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike will expand. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there has been an increase in capacity maintenance recently, the overall output is still at a high level. Sustained rebound still faces three dilemmas: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward cost support, and the pressure of expiring warrant delivery. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [20]. Stainless Steel Market Information - At 15:00 on Thursday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% (- 15) on the day, with a unilateral position of 230,200 lots, a decrease of 7,380 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market