中原期货晨会纪要-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, there are numerous significant events in the global market. Domestically, China's January CPI, PPI, and credit data such as new loans and social financing are to be released, and the results of the Q4 2025 Hang Seng Index series review will be announced. Internationally, the delayed US January non - farm payrolls and inflation data are coming, and the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations. Many companies will disclose their latest financial reports [7]. - The A - share ETF market at the beginning of 2026 shows a "polarized" situation. Mainstream broad - based ETFs have suffered nearly 100 billion yuan in redemptions, while theme ETFs such as those in the chemical, non - ferrous metals, and power grid equipment sectors have attracted funds, indicating a strategic shift of funds from large - cap blue - chips to specific high - growth tracks [8]. - Since the beginning of 2026, southbound funds have continuously increased their investment in the Hong Kong stock market. As of February 8, southbound funds have had net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, with net purchases exceeding 10 billion yuan in the last three trading days [8]. - The A - share market is currently adjusting around the 4100 - point mark, but active equity funds have shown strong performance resilience, with 135 funds hitting new highs in their reinvested unit net values since February [9]. - The prices of various futures products show different trends. For example, in the chemical sector, natural rubber and 20 - number rubber have risen, while asphalt and fuel oil have fallen; in the agricultural products sector, yellow soybean No.2 and soybean meal have risen, while palm oil and yellow corn have fallen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,134.50 | 1,138.50 | - 4.0 | - 0.351% | | Coke | 1,688.00 | 1,698.50 | - 10.50 | - 0.618% | | Natural Rubber | 16,205.00 | 16,080.00 | 125.0 | 0.777% | | 20 - number Rubber | 13,115.00 | 13,050.00 | 65.0 | 0.498% | | Plastic | 6,769.00 | 6,812.00 | - 43.0 | - 0.631% | | Polypropylene PP | 6,668.00 | 6,691.00 | - 23.0 | - 0.344% | | (PTA) | 5,188.00 | 5,166.00 | 22.0 | 0.426% | | PVC | 4,989.00 | 4,981.00 | 8.0 | 0.161% | | Asphalt | 3,354.00 | 3,386.00 | - 32.0 | - 0.945% | | Methanol | 2,240.00 | 2,244.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.178% | | Ethylene Glycol | 3,739.00 | 3,743.00 | - 4.0 | - 0.107% | | Styrene | 7,609.00 | 7,625.00 | - 16.0 | - 0.210% | | Glass | 1,065.00 | 1,072.00 | - 7.0 | - 0.653% | | Crude Oil | 466.50 | 465.40 | 1.10 | 0.236% | | Fuel Oil | 2,804.00 | 2,831.00 | - 27.0 | - 0.954% | | Soda Ash | 1,178.00 | 1,190.00 | - 12.0 | - 1.008% | | Pulp | 5,220.00 | 5,234.00 | - 14.0 | - 0.267% | | LPG | 4,225.00 | 4,258.00 | - 33.0 | - 0.775% | | Caustic Soda | 1,923.00 | 1,862.00 | 61.0 | 3.276% | | ЬХ | 7,272.00 | 7,262.00 | 10.0 | 0.138% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Product | Price on 2026/2/9 (8:00) | Price on 2026/2/6 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No.1 | 4,380.00 | 4,378.00 | 2.0 | 0.046% | | Yellow Soybean No.2 | 3,483.00 | 3,468.00 | 15.0 | 0.433% | | Soybean Meal | 2,742.00 | 2,735.00 | 7.0 | 0.256% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,240.00 | 2,239.00 | 1.0 | 0.045% | | Soybean Oil | 8,130.00 | 8,102.00 | 28.0 | 0.346% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,146.00 | 9,144.00 | 2.0 | 0.022% | | Palm Oil | 9,018.00 | 9,026.00 | - 8.0 | - 0.089% | | White Sugar | 5,228.00 | 5,228.00 | 0 | 0 | | Yellow Corn | 2,263.00 | 2,274.00 | - 11.0 | - 0.484% | | Corn Starch | 2,535.00 | 2,540.00 | - 5.0 | - 0.197% | | No.1 Cotton | 14,655.00 | 14,580.00 | 75.0 | 0.514% | | Cotton Yarn | 20,425.00 | 20,405.00 | 20.0 | 0.098% | [4] 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure is the core contradiction, but there are marginal changes. The price may continue to consolidate in the short term, with the upper resistance at 5250 - 5280 yuan and the lower support at 5200 yuan [12]. - Corn: On February 6, the price continued to be oscillating and strengthening. The supply - side sales progress is faster, and the demand - side support is limited. One can consider buying on dips near 2250 - 2260 yuan, with short - term resistance at 2280 - 2300 yuan [12]. - Peanut: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side import reduction supports the price, and the demand - side situation is relatively balanced. It is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. One can wait and see or try to go long lightly near 8000 yuan [12]. - Pig: The current supply is abundant and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market is in a state of near - weak and far - strong [12]. - Egg: The current spot price is mainly stable, and the demand is the main factor. The futures market is oscillating, with near - strong and far - weak characteristics [13]. - Jujube: The price in the producing area is stable, and the sales area is in normal trading. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is looking for support [13]. - Cotton: On February 6, the price was in a narrow - range shock. The supply - side has a long - term reduction expectation, but the short - term high inventory suppresses the price. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term, and one can consider going long on dips [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The overall fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances on prices [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: As the holiday approaches, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will be weak, and the prices will oscillate weakly [13]. - Log: On February 6, the price fell significantly. The pre - holiday demand decline pressure dominates, and it is expected to continue to be weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - Pulp: The supply pressure persists, and the demand support is weak. The pulp price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term [14]. - Double - offset Paper: The market is in a weak - balance state. The price is expected to maintain an interval shock in the short term, and one can consider high - selling and low - buying in the 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton range [14]. - Urea: The domestic urea market price is mainly stable. The supply has recovered to a high level, and the demand shows different trends. Attention should be paid to the impact of Indian tenders on market sentiment [14][16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Recently, the market sentiment has cooled down, and copper and aluminum prices have adjusted at high levels, waiting to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - Alumina: The fundamentals of alumina remain in an oversupply pattern, waiting for new market drivers [19]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Alloys - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: The overall fundamentals of ferrous alloys are relatively healthy. The short - term trend maintains a callback - biased - long thinking, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment [21]. 3.3.5 Lithium Carbonate - On February 6, the price was volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in February, and the demand provides short - term support, but the expected import increase in March suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [21]. 3.3.6 Option Finance - Stock Index Options: On February 6, the three major A - share indexes pulled back. Different index futures and options have different performance characteristics. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility before the Spring Festival [21][22]. - Stock Index: Before the Spring Festival, the market is mainly oscillating. One can consider buying a straddle strategy. After the festival, the probability of an upward trend is high, and short - term trading should follow the thinking of a wide - range shock market [22][23]