多晶硅：行业成本指导价确定：工业硅：行业库存累库，关注本周商品情绪

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon industry is experiencing inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the commodity sentiment this week. The cost - guiding price of the polysilicon industry has been determined. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605: The closing price is 8,500 yuan/ton, with a change of - 105 yuan compared to T - 1, - 350 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 480 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 335,419 lots, with a change of 19,855 lots compared to T - 1, - 222,197 lots compared to T - 5, and - 141,967 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest is 277,011 lots, with an increase of 10,029 lots compared to T - 1, 40,384 lots compared to T - 5, and 32,277 lots compared to T - 22. [2] - PS2605: The closing price is 49,285 yuan/ton, with a change of - 265 yuan compared to T - 1 and 2,145 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 10,683 lots, with a change of - 800 lots compared to T - 1 and - 8,854 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest is 37,934 lots, with a change of - 870 lots compared to T - 1 and - 4,579 lots compared to T - 5. [2] - Spreads and costs: The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract of industrial silicon is - 30 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short inter - period arbitrage is 50.0 yuan/ton. The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract of polysilicon is 560.0 yuan/ton. [2] 3.1.2 Basis and Price - Industrial silicon spot premium: The premium for East China Si5530 is + 850 yuan/ton, for East China Si4210 is + 350 yuan/ton, and for Xinjiang 99 - silicon is + 200 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot premium for N - type re - investment material is + 4465 yuan/ton. [2] - Spot prices: Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - investment material is 53600 yuan/ton. [2] 3.1.3 Profit - Silicon plant profit: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is - 2631.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is - 5824 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.1 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.4 yuan compared to T - 1, 2.7 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 1.6 yuan compared to T - 22. [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) is 56.2 million tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.6 million tons, and the industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) is 76.8 million tons. The futures warehouse - receipt inventory is 8.4 million tons. [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 34.1 million tons. [2] 3.1.5 Raw Material Cost - Silicon ore: The price in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 230 yuan/ton. [2] - Washed coking coal: The price in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 1200 yuan/ton. [2] - Petroleum coke: The price of Maoming coke is 1400 yuan/ton, and that of Yangtze coke is 1740 yuan/ton. [2] - Electrodes: The price of graphite electrodes is 12450 yuan/ton, and that of carbon electrodes is 7200 yuan/ton. [2] 3.1.6 Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - Prices: The price of silicon powder (99 - silicon) is 9850 yuan/ton, silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) are 1.5 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) are 0.44 yuan/watt, components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) are 0.738 yuan/watt, photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) is 17.5 yuan/cubic meter, and photovoltaic - grade EVA is 9000 yuan/ton. [2] - Profits: The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.1 yuan/kg. [2] 3.1.7 Organic Silicon - Price: The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton. [2] - Profit: The profit of DMC enterprises is 1951 yuan/ton. [2] 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy - Price: The price of ADC12 is 23550 yuan/ton. [2] - Profit: The profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 410 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 6, the Power Industry Planning Research and Detection Early - Warning Center announced the new - energy grid - connection and consumption situation in each provincial region in 2025. The wind - power utilization rate is 94.3%, and the photovoltaic - power utilization rate is 94.8%. The photovoltaic - power utilization rates in Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet are lower than 90%. [2] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0. The trend - strength value ranges from - 2 to 2 (integers), with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish. [4]