烧碱：成本抬升，估值低位

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not last after April, and the recent price cut of liquid chlorine in Shandong has significantly raised the cost of caustic soda. The short - term oversupply situation of alumina in the demand side has not changed, and the overall demand is weak. The spot price in Shandong is close to the cash - flow cost, and the expectation of production reduction and load reduction is increasing after March. The weak spot pattern of caustic soda is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival, but later, caustic soda will face cost increase and large - scale production reduction. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions of the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and consider gradually building long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On February 9, 2026, the futures price of the 03 contract was 1862, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong was 600, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 1875, and the basis was 13 [1] Spot News - On February 9, the price of liquid chlorine of Shandong Xinfa was reduced by 50 yuan, with the tank - truck ex - factory price at 1 - 100 yuan/ton [2] Market Situation Analysis - The previous core logic of shorting caustic soda profit was the strong liquid chlorine and the declining caustic soda cost. However, this logic will be challenged later as the short - term strength of liquid chlorine may not last after April. The recent 200 - yuan/ton price cut of liquid chlorine in Shandong has raised the caustic soda cost [3] - In the demand side, the short - term oversupply of alumina remains unchanged, and the expectation of production reduction suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. There is also incremental demand from large - scale capacity expansion later. Non - aluminum downstream is facing a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and export stockpiling is weak, so the overall demand is weak [3] - In the supply side, the spot price in Shandong is close to the cash - flow cost, and the expectation of production reduction and load reduction is increasing after March [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, with the range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]