动力煤：节前煤价仍以稳为主

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The price of thermal coal before the Spring Festival is expected to remain stable with a slight upward bias. The market shows characteristics of weak supply and demand, with limited upward price space [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Coal Prices: The current prices of thermal coal from different origins and ports are presented, along with their month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 567 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 29 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - Long - term Agreement Prices in February: The long - term agreement prices for port Q5500, Shanxi Q5500, Shaanxi Q5500, and Mengxi Q5500 in February are 680 yuan/ton, 517 yuan/ton, 461 yuan/ton, and 431 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Port Market: On February 6, the port market continued to rise slightly. Due to the suspension of production and sales of private coal mines in upstream production areas, the reduction of market coal resources arriving at ports, and the decline in port inventories, combined with the impact of import market supply issues, the price of domestic coal continued to rise slightly. However, as downstream industrial enterprises enter the holiday, the demand side weakens, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [1][2]. - Indonesia's Coal Policy: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has not officially approved the 2026 work plan and budget for coal producers. The government is considering significantly reducing the annual coal production, and the final production quota is uncertain. The reduction measures will be implemented proportionally and differentially for different miners [1][2]. - Impact on Indonesian Coal Mines: The Indonesian Coal Mining Association warns that the government's significant reduction in production quotas may lead to the shutdown of some coal mines. Individual mining companies may cut production by 40% - 70%. Indonesia plans to reduce annual coal production to about 600 million tons and impose an export surcharge, which will further weaken the industry's profitability [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at northern ports) is 1 [4].