黑色建材日报 2026-02-09-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current black series is in a bottom - game stage with both long and short factors. In the short term, the black series will mainly operate within a range, and the trend opportunities are not clear yet. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and possible marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [3]. - In the medium - to - long term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise may drag down the sentiment of the non - ferrous and commodity bulls and suppress the overall market atmosphere [9][16]. - It is expected that the anti - involution policy will continue to support the price of polysilicon, and the full - cost below will be used as the price support reference. The polysilicon futures market is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner, and it is advisable to wait and see [23]. Summary of Each Section Steel - Market Information: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3077 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.77%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 16,015 tons. The main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,251 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.36%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 220,579 tons [2][7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply and demand of rebar have both declined seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating, but the overall accumulation range is still controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, with a slight decline in production and a slight accumulation of inventory. In the short term, the black series will mainly operate in an oscillatory range [3]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.04% (-8.00), and the position changed by -10,368 lots to 514,700 lots. The weighted position was 875,200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 765 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.34% [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Overseas iron ore shipments are gradually entering the off - season, and the supply pressure is marginally reduced. The inventory structural problem has not been solved, and the support effect of steel mills' pre - festival replenishment on prices is weakening. It is expected that the iron ore price will operate weakly in an oscillatory manner [6]. Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - Market Information: On February 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.48% at 5,856 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.46% at 5,624 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most of the factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trend will be affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and possible supply contractions due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [10]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: On February 6, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 2.86% at 1,138.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 2.27% at 1,698.5 yuan/ton [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Overseas coal - related disturbances have a certain positive impact on market sentiment, but the short - term upward driving force for coking coal prices is not strong. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased price correction after the Spring Festival. Coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend from June to October [15][16][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8,500 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.22% (-105). The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 49,285 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.53% (-265) [19][22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In February, industrial silicon shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to operate weakly in an oscillatory manner. For polysilicon, the supply continues to decrease, the supply - demand relationship is marginally improved, and the high inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures market is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [21][23]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The main contract of glass closed at 1,072 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-16). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises on February 5 was 53.064 million boxes, a month - on - month increase of 500,000 boxes (+0.95%). The main contract of soda ash closed at 1,190 yuan/ton, down 1.57% (-19). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises on February 5 was 1.5811 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,900 tons (+0.95%) [25][27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The downstream demand for glass is weak, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate. The demand for heavy soda ash is still weak, and the soda ash price is expected to continue to operate weakly [26][28].