黄金、白银期货品种周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The gold price last week showed a sharp "plunge - rebound - volatile decline" pattern, driven by alternating influences of Fed policy expectations and geopolitical risks. In the short term, with multiple factors in play, the gold price may maintain wide - range fluctuations [7]. - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and is currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the silver price showed a sharp unilateral decline, dropping 38.5% cumulatively, driven by macro - policies and a liquidity crisis [32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The gold price last week showed a sharp "plunge - rebound - volatile decline" pattern. The core driver was the alternating influence of Fed policy expectations and geopolitical risks. The market sentiment switched frequently, and funds were mainly speculative. In the short term, the gold price may maintain wide - range fluctuations. It is necessary to focus on Fed policy signals and the evolution of geopolitical conflicts [7]. - The mid - term strategy suggestion is to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The Shanghai Gold contract 2604 had a significant short - term high - level correction. The upper pressure was 1115 - 1165 yuan/gram, and the lower support was 950 - 1000 yuan/gram. It was recommended to close long positions and wait and see [10]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai Gold contract 2604 has significant short - term high - level fluctuations. The upper pressure is 1150 - 1200 yuan/gram, and the lower support is 1000 - 1050 yuan/gram. With the Spring Festival approaching, attention should be paid to risks, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see [11]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the Shanghai Gold market trend, COMEX gold market trend, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23][25][27] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and is currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the silver price showed a sharp unilateral decline, dropping 38.5% cumulatively. The core drivers were macro - policies and a liquidity crisis. The current market is dominated by sentiment and capital, and the future stabilization depends on Fed policy signals, the recovery of global liquidity, and the alleviation of market panic [32]. - The mid - term strategy suggestion is to wait and see [32]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2604 had a significant high - level correction. The upper pressure was 25,500 - 26,500 yuan/kg, and the lower support was 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/kg. It was recommended to close long positions and wait and see [35]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2604 has significant high - level fluctuations. The upper pressure is 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support is 17,000 - 19,000 yuan/kg. With the Spring Festival approaching, attention should be paid to risks, and it is recommended to mainly wait and see [36]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the Shanghai Silver market trend, COMEX silver market trend, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]