LPG液化气周报：重点关注美伊谈判-20260209

Report Title - LPG Liquefied Gas Weekly Report: Focus on US-Iran Negotiations [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG has been oscillating within a range after a previous decline. Overseas, Middle Eastern supplies remain tight with rising Saudi CP prices in March and uncertain Iranian situation, keeping prices high. In Europe and America, cold snaps led to continuous inventory reduction of propane in the US, driving prices up with natural gas, but supply is sufficient. Domestically, although the arrival volume is low, refinery off - gas has increased. In terms of demand, combustion demand is still in the peak season, but chemical demand is weak, with low PDH operating rates due to high import prices and poor profits. Looking ahead, refinery off - gas may decline slightly, and there is no sign of further weakening in PDH operations. The impact of the Iranian negotiations should be continuously monitored [4]. - Unilateral trading strategy: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage strategy: wait - and - see; Option strategy: wait - and - see [5] Summary of Each Chapter Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Overseas market: Tight Middle Eastern supply, rising Saudi CP prices in March, and uncertain Iranian situation keep Middle Eastern prices high. In Europe and America, cold snaps in the US led to propane inventory reduction, driving prices up with natural gas, but supply is sufficient. - Domestic market: Supply side shows low arrival volume but increased refinery off - gas. Demand side has strong combustion demand but weak chemical demand, with low PDH operating rates due to high import prices and poor profits. Future refinery off - gas may decline slightly, and PDH operations may not weaken further [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Option: wait - and - see [5] Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis Crude Oil - The international crude oil market is highly volatile and widely oscillating, mainly driven by the repeated US - Iran geopolitical negotiations, along with macro - demand concerns and supply - side signals. Oil prices first fell and then rebounded, but still ended the week lower, breaking the previous upward trend. Geopolitical factors led to a roller - coaster market. At the beginning of the week, easing negotiation expectations reduced geopolitical risks and oil prices declined. In the middle and later part of the week, negotiation uncertainties and the US shooting down an Iranian drone increased the geopolitical premium and oil prices rebounded. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC + confirmed no change in the March production policy, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price to Asia, the impact of extreme cold in the US is fading, and the US oil inventory change is limited with an emerging supply - surplus pattern [10]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of domestic major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 81.81%, up 1.79% week - on - week and 2.87% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries is 60.00%, down 0.91 percentage points week - on - week. Due to the increased operation of major refineries and reduced self - use in some enterprises, supply has increased. Next week, refinery off - gas is expected to decrease, and domestic LPG production may decline [13]. Demand - Chemical demand is weak. The PDH operating rate is 62.66%, up 1.94% week - on - week but at a historically low level, mainly due to increased production in East China. MTBE production remained flat this week. The capacity utilization rate of alkylation oil samples is 36.30%, up 0.87% week - on - week [16]. Inventory - This week, the number of arriving ships at ports decreased slightly, but the inventory of ships arriving last week was unloaded this week, increasing the unloading volume. Due to the addition of new port sample enterprises by Longzhong, port inventory increased. LPG inventory at refineries decreased slightly. From the perspective of tertiary - station inventory, the storage rates in different regions vary, with the storage rate in North China rising from the bottom, remaining high in South China and along the Yangtze River, increasing in East China, and being neutral in other regions [20]. Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [24] Spread Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [27] Disk Profit Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [30] Spot Profit Data - Not summarized as only data graphs are presented without specific text analysis [34] Supply Data - Data on the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG production, and crude oil processing volume are presented. There is also a refinery maintenance plan table showing the maintenance information of multiple domestic refineries from 2025 to 2027 [37][39] PDH Device Maintenance Data - A table shows the maintenance information of PDH devices of multiple enterprises from 2023 to 2026 [41] National Temperature Forecast - Not summarized as only the data source is provided without specific content [45] Inventory Data - Data on the storage rates of tertiary stations, port inventory, and port storage ratios of LPG are presented [48]