国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Nickel: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction still lies in Indonesia [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with the cost - support center shifting upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: The industry inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to this week's commodity sentiment [2][16]. - Polysilicon: The industry cost guidance price has been determined [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 131,840, down 2,590 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 13,670, down 140 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 554,444, down 28,080 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 287,657, down 42,500 from T - 1 [4]. - Macro and industry news: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the nickel ore price formula, adjust the nickel ore production target, and there are issues such as corporate illegal land use and port monopoly in the Indonesian nickel industry [4][5][7]. - Trend intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 132,920, up 140 from T - 1; the trading volume was 586,706, up 54,982 from T - 1; the open interest was 328,575, down 1,202 from T - 1. The spot - 2605 basis was 1,580, down 9,640 from T - 1 [11]. - Macro and industry news: In January 2026, the estimated new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. Toyota plans to increase global vehicle production by 10% to about 11.3 million in 2028 and increase hybrid vehicle production by about 30% to 6.7 million [12][14]. - Trend intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental data: The Si2605 closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 105 from T - 1; the trading volume was 335,419 lots, up 19,855 from T - 1; the open interest was 277,011 lots, up 10,029 from T - 1. The PS2605 closing price was 49,285 yuan/ton, down 265 from T - 1 [16]. - Macro and industry news: In 2025, the wind power utilization rate was 94.3%, and the photovoltaic power generation utilization rate was 94.8%. The photovoltaic power generation utilization rates in Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet were lower than 90% [16]. - Trend intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 0 [18].