豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20260209

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Bean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: February 9 - 13, 2026 [1] Group 2: Bean Meal Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main bean meal contract is in a range - bound stage [6] - Trend Logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 5th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2961 million tons, the operating rate was 63.16%, and the bean meal inventory was 930,400 tons. Global soybean harvest prospects are clear, domestic oil mills maintain a high operating rate, and bean meal supply is abundant. Downstream Spring Festival stocking is nearing the end, and aquaculture profits are generally in the red, with weak overall consumption. However, the possible boost from the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the uncertainty of weather risks in the Argentine production area, and the cost side support the price. It is expected that the bean meal futures will maintain a range - bound pattern [6] - Mid - term Strategy Suggestion: Pay attention to South American weather changes, the arrival rhythm of new Brazilian crops, and domestic aquaculture demand [6] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was in a sideways stage, and the funds were strongly bearish. The M2605 is expected to be in a weak shock pattern in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, to avoid volatility risks during the long holiday, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [10] Relevant Data - Data includes bean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, bean meal basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][21][24] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range shock stage [29] - Trend Logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 5th week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 436,300 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 946,800 tons. Currently, the supply side is relatively abundant due to the high operating rate of oil mills, while the demand has significantly weakened after the Spring Festival stocking, and the spot market trading is light. However, the favorable US biofuel policy and the optimistic Sino - US trade expectations support the soybean oil price. It is expected that the soybean oil futures price will mainly be in a wide - range shock [29] - Mid - term Strategy Suggestion: Pay attention to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil trends, and domestic demand [29] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward stage, and the funds were slightly bullish. In the short term, the Y2605 may be in a high - level shock stage [32] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, to avoid volatility risks during the long holiday, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [33] Relevant Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, soybean oil basis, soybean oil trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean weekly inventory, soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [43][47][50]