原油周报：高波动、宽震荡-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the international crude oil market showed high volatility and wide - range fluctuations, mainly driven by the repeated geopolitical negotiations between the US and Iran. Combined with macro - demand concerns and supply - side signals, oil prices first fell and then rebounded, but still recorded a weekly decline, ending the previous consecutive upward trend. Geopolitics is the short - term trading focus. If the US - Iran negotiation makes substantial progress, the risk premium will quickly fade, and oil prices may further decline to the $60 - 62 range; if the situation becomes tense or the negotiation breaks down, prices may quickly rise above $68 - 70 [5]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for unilateral trading, expect wide - range fluctuations; for arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Market Performance: The international crude oil market this week had high volatility and wide - range fluctuations, with prices first falling and then rebounding, but a weekly decline was recorded, ending the previous upward trend [5]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral trading: wide - range fluctuations; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Macro - US Labor Market: The ADP data shows that the market expects a mild recovery in private - sector new employment, and there are continuous concerns about labor market cooling. The non - farm employment data for January is expected to add about 70,000 jobs, with the employment rate stable at around 4.4% and a moderate average hourly wage growth. This data has been postponed to next week due to the government shutdown [11]. - US Dollar Index: It strengthened during the week, suppressing market risk appetite and causing a sharp decline in the commodity market. It weakened on Friday, leading to a recovery in risk appetite [11]. 3.2.2 Supply - Russian Oil Exports: As of late January, over 140 million barrels of Russian crude oil were stranded at sea, causing payment delays and port congestion. Russian oil revenue is at a low point since the war, with a 24% year - on - year decline in 2025 and accounting for less than 23% of the budget, a 20 - year low [14]. - Iranian Issue: Geopolitical factors dominated the market. At the beginning of the week, the expectation of negotiation easing led to a decline in oil prices, while in the middle and late week, due to the resurgence of negotiation uncertainty and the US shooting down an Iranian drone, the geopolitical premium increased and oil prices rebounded. The possibility of a direct conflict in the short term is low, but tail risks still exist [17]. - US Oil: On February 6th, the number of active US oil rigs was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1. In the week of January 30th, US crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day. The EIA slightly raised the forecast for US crude oil production in 2026, expecting the annual average production to remain at around 13.6 million barrels per day, basically the same as in 2025 (with a decline of less than 1%). It is expected that production in 2027 will decline more significantly, to 13.3 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 2% (or about 340,000 barrels per day) compared to 2026 [18][20]. 3.2.3 Balance - The IEA's January balance sheet slightly increased the demand forecast for 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day, the third consecutive upward revision. Supply was revised up by 100,000 barrels per day, mainly due to slightly higher - than - expected production increases in non - OPEC+ (especially in the Americas). In an environment of both supply and demand growth, the surplus is still high, with a surplus of 4.25 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 [23]. 3.2.4 Market Conditions - Western Market: The Middle East market was relatively strong. The spread between the first - line and third - line of the Dubai swap strengthened, remaining above 0 during the week but still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. The DFL weakened significantly on a week - on - week basis, remaining around $0.7 - 0.8 per barrel, and the EFS also increased slightly [24][26]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Crude Oil Price and Monthly Spread: Data on the first - line prices and monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and Dubai are presented [30]. - Crude Oil Spot - Europe & West Africa: Data on DFL, CFD 1W - 1M, and various oil - type discounts are provided [33]. - Crude Oil Spot - Middle East & Mediterranean: Data on CPC, Azeri, Urals, Oman discounts, and EFS first - line are presented [37]. - Crude Oil Spot - North America: Data on Brent - WTI, Cushing - Midland, LLS - Mars spreads are provided [41]. - US EIA Weekly Data: Data on US crude oil production, feed - in volume, export volume, import volume, refinery operating rate, gasoline production, distillate production, jet fuel production, commercial inventory, Cushing inventory, and strategic inventory are presented [44][47][50]. - Inventory - Crude Oil Floating Storage & Waterborne: Data on global, Asian, European, and Middle Eastern crude oil floating storage, as well as global waterborne and in - transit crude oil are provided [54]. - Inventory - European Refined Oil: Data on ARA fuel oil, diesel, gasoline, naphtha, and jet fuel inventories are presented [57]. - Inventory - Singapore & Middle East Refined Oil: Data on Singapore's heavy, medium, and light inventories, as well as Fujeirah's heavy, medium, and light inventories are provided [60]. - Cracking and Profit - Northwest Europe: Data on NEW - Brent - Topping, NEW - Brent - HSK, NEW - Brent - HCU, and NEW - Brent - FCC cracking spreads are provided [66]. - Cracking and Profit - Asia - Pacific: Data on APAC - Dubai - FCC, APAC - Dubai - HCU, APAC - Dubai - HSK, and APAC - Dubai - Topping cracking spreads are provided [71]. - Cracking and Profit - North America: Data on US - WTI - FCC, US - WTI - Coking, US - WTI - HSK, and US - WTI - Topping cracking spreads are provided [76]. - Oil Price vs. Position: Data on the relationship between Brent and WTI prices and their management fund net positions are presented [79][82].