国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Stockpiling is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Apparent demand is weakening month - on - month, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels [2][17]. - Thermal coal: Coal prices will remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][21]. - Logs: Port arrivals are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [2][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The closing price of I2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-1.04%); the position decreased by 10,368 hands. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores declined [4]. - Macro and Industry News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3; some real - estate companies no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,077 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.65%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,251 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.43%) [9]. - Macro and Industry News: In the week of February 5th, rebar production decreased by 8.15 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.05 tons; total inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased. In late January 2026, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, etc. [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 was 5634 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton; the closing price of silicomanganese 2603 was 5816 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The two - department will increase the proportion of coal - fired power generation units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity prices; steel mills' ferrosilicon procurement prices and quantities changed; electricity prices in some regions changed; UMK's March manganese ore quotation increased [13][14][15]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The closing price of JM2605 was 1138.5 yuan/ton, down 33.5 yuan/ton (-2.9%); the closing price of J2605 was 1698.5 yuan/ton, down 39.5 yuan/ton (-2.3%) [17]. - Macro and Industry News: On February 6th, the CCI metallurgical coal index remained unchanged; the coking coal online auction had a 2% failure rate, and the demand was weakening [17]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Thermal Coal - Price and Position Data: The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 was 567 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 695 yuan/ton [21]. - Macro and Industry News: On February 6th, the port market continued to rise steadily; the Indonesian government's coal production plan was uncertain; the Indonesian coal association worried that production cuts would lead to mine closures [22]. Logs - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 784, down 2.2%; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 788, down 1.2%. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, and a few increased slightly [23]. - Macro and Industry News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3; some real - estate companies no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [25]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [26].