国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to oscillate and rebound, while silver is likely to decline from its high level. Copper trading remains cautious with prices oscillating. Zinc will trade in a range, and lead shows weak supply - demand with oscillating prices. Tin will consolidate, and aluminum investors should focus on post - holiday inventory reduction. Alumina will see oscillating convergence, and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum. Platinum will recover during oscillations, and palladium will rebound following the precious metals sector. Nickel is affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, and the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesia. Stainless steel will have frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with the cost support center moving up [2]. 3. Summary by Metals Gold and Silver - Price Movements: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 1,090.12 with a - 1.41% daily decline and 1114.50 in the night session with a 2.82% increase. Gold T + D closed at 1,091.49 with a - 1.30% daily decline and 1111.00 in the night session with a 2.97% increase. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18799 with a - 6.19% daily decline and 19840.00 in the night session with a 3.51% increase. Silver T + D closed at 18197 with a - 7.16% daily decline and 18848 with a 3.97% increase [4]. - Macro and Industry News: China's central bank's gold reserves increased for the fifteenth consecutive month, with a 40,000 - ounce increase in January. The US hopes for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine before June [4][6]. Copper - Price Movements: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,100 with a - 0.87% daily decline and 101490 in the night session with a 1.39% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,060 with a 1.59% increase [7]. - Macro and Industry News: The State Council executive meeting plans to make better use of funds. The US and Iran reached a consensus on "maintaining dialogue" in nuclear negotiations. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association considers including "copper concentrate" in national reserves. Glencore Canada suspended major investments in a smelter, and Anglo American's Q4 2025 copper production decreased by 14% year - on - year. Capstone Copper will resume full production at a mine [7][9]. Zinc - Price Movements: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24450 with a 0.23% increase, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3383 with a 2.56% increase [10]. - News: China's central bank's gold reserves increased for the fifteenth consecutive month, and the US hopes for a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement before June [11]. Lead - Price Movements: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16510 with a - 0.27% decline, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1965.5 with a 0.59% increase [14]. - News: The State Council executive meeting plans to make better use of funds, and the US and Iran reached a consensus on "maintaining dialogue" in nuclear negotiations [15]. Tin - Price Movements: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 357,000 with a - 0.94% decline and 366,450 in the night session with a 1.69% increase. The LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 47,155 with a 0.35% increase [18]. - Macro and Industry News: Zelensky said the US hopes to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict before summer. Trump plans to negotiate with Iran again, and he expects the Dow Jones to reach 100,000 by the end of his term [18][20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Movements: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23315 with a - 70 decline, and the LME aluminum 3M closed at 3110 with an 84 increase. The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2824 with a 34 increase, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21950 with a 35 increase [24]. - Comprehensive News: The US and India reached a temporary trade framework, and Trump nominated a new Fed chair [26]. Platinum and Palladium - Price Movements: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 506.00 with a - 6.35% decline, and palladium futures 2606 closed at 410.50 with a - 7.27% decline [27]. - Macro and Industry News: A US aircraft carrier entered a position for a potential strike on Iran. The semiconductor industry is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026. Japan held a parliamentary election, and Iran's foreign minister set red lines in negotiations [29][30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Movements: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 131,840 with a - 2,590 decline, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,670 with a - 140 decline [31]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, adjusted nickel ore benchmark prices, and planned to cut nickel ore production targets. Some Indonesian mines faced potential fines for illegal land use, and a ship carrying nickel ore sank [30][31][34].