国贸期货塑料数据周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market has no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The influencing factors include neutral supply, weak demand, weak inventory, neutral basis, favorable profit, favorable valuation, and favorable macro - environment [2] - For PP, the short - term market has no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The influencing factors include favorable supply, weak demand, weak inventory, neutral basis, favorable profit, neutral valuation, and neutral macro - policy [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 712,400 tons, a 0.91% increase from last week. The production capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 85.91%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [2] Demand - The average operating rate of downstream LLDPE/LDPE products in China decreased by 0.9% from the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 1.0%, and that of PE packaging films decreased by 0.8%. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 1.8%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 13.407 million tons, a 3.21% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, China's polyethylene import volume was 1.3299 million tons, a 4.62% year - on - year increase and a 25.21% month - on - month increase [2] Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 379,700 tons, a 56,700 - ton increase from the previous period, a 17.55% month - on - month increase. The inventory trend changed from decreasing to increasing [2] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 121, and the futures price is at a discount [2] Profit - The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production increased by 45, 8, and 15 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The cost of ethane - based production decreased by 43 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based production remained the same as last week [2] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [2] Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [2] Investment View - The short - term market has no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2] 3.2 PP Analysis Supply - This week, China's polypropylene production was 763,200 tons, a 0.68 - ton decrease (0.88% decrease) from last week and a 0.77 - ton increase (1.02% increase) compared with the same period last year. The average production capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 73.92%, a 0.66% month - on - month decrease, while the production capacity utilization rate of Sinopec increased by 0.86% [3] Demand - The average operating rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87%. As the temperature gradually drops, the demand in industrial fields such as cement and fertilizers in the downstream of plastic weaving and the demand for furniture and daily necessities relying on transparent PP have entered the seasonal off - season, and the market procurement pace has slowed down significantly. About 50% of enterprises will enter the holiday before the 20th day of the 12th lunar month, and the operating rate will gradually decline. The average operating rate of CPP sample enterprises remained the same as last week [3] Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 662,700 tons, a 14,400 - ton increase from the previous period, a 2.22% month - on - month increase. The inventory of producers was 415,800 tons, a 14,900 - ton increase from the previous period, a 3.72% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory at Chinese polypropylene ports decreased by 30 tons from the previous period, a 0.47% month - on - month decrease [3] Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 71, and the futures price is at a premium [3] Profit - This week, the profits of methanol - based, externally - sourced propylene - based, and PDH - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based and coal - based PP production declined [3] Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [3] Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3] Investment View - The short - term market has no obvious driving force, and the price is expected to fluctuate [3] 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - The PP futures price was 6,691 yuan/ton, a 1.95% decrease from last week; the PE futures price was 6,812 yuan/ton, a 2.88% decrease from last week [5] - The PP production was 763,200 tons, a 0.88% decrease from last week; the PE production was 712,400 tons, a 0.91% increase from last week [2][3][5] - The PP operating rate was 31.4%, a 1.92% decrease from last week; the PE operating rate was 85.91%, a 0.65% increase from last week [5] - The PP factory inventory was 188,430 tons, a 12.65% decrease from last week; the PE social inventory was 607,300 tons [5]