油脂周报：油脂仍受政策端扰动，关注下周两大月报-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recently, the oil and fat market has been significantly influenced by trade and policy expectations. After a rapid rise, the market has shown signs of weakness and a decline. The palm oil in Malaysia may experience a production cut and inventory reduction in January, but the inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The inventory situation in Malaysia and Indonesia is different, and the combined inventory of the two countries is not abundant. The positive outlook for U.S. biodiesel is expected to benefit the consumption demand for U.S. soybean oil, which has potential positive effects on soybean oil. However, soybean oil lacks a prominent core contradiction. The market rumor that China will increase its purchase commitment of U.S. soybeans to 20 million tons this season, along with a new round of reserve auctions possibly taking place after the holiday, may shift the supply pressure of soybean oil, restricting its upward space. Canadian rapeseed is expected to re - enter the domestic market, and there have been many purchases of Canadian rapeseed recently, which is negative for the far - month rapeseed oil basis. In the short term, rapeseed oil maintains a small - scale inventory reduction rhythm, which provides some support for the rapeseed oil price. When the oil and fat market continues to correct, rapeseed oil will also follow, but the downward space is expected to be limited. Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil is still affected by policy factors [4][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Week - to - Week Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 1. Recent Core Events and Market Review - Three major forecasting institutions predict that the production of Malaysian palm oil in January will decrease by 12 - 14% month - on - month to about 1.6 million tons, exports will improve to 1.42 million tons, and inventory may be reduced to about 2.9 million tons. The U.S. Treasury Department issued the proposed rules for the 45Z tax credit this week. The new rules set the raw materials for biofuel production in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, and cancel the indirect land - use change penalty. There is a rumor that China will increase its purchase commitment of U.S. soybeans to 20 million tons this season after a phone call between Chinese and U.S. leaders on Wednesday [4]. 2. International Market - Malaysia: Three major forecasting institutions predict that the production of Malaysian palm oil in January will decrease by 12 - 14% to about 1.6 million tons. UOB expects the production decline in January to be 13 - 17%, and MPOA expects a 14% decline. Exports have improved to 1.42 million tons, and inventory may be reduced to about 2.9 million tons, which is still at a high level in the same period of history. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report next week. - Indonesia: Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in February at $918.47 per ton, slightly higher than $915.64 per ton in January. The export tax remains the same as in January at $74 per ton. Currently, the CPO reference price in Indonesia has dropped from over $900 to around $890, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the room for further increase is expected to be limited. - Weather: According to the rainfall forecast map, rainfall will significantly increase in the southern part of the Malay Peninsula and the Sabah and Sarawak regions in the next week. The rainfall in Indonesia is generally normal. The situation of excessive rainfall in the southern part of the Malay Peninsula and East Malaysia will ease in the next two weeks [7]. - India: The market expects that India's palm oil imports in January will surge by 51% to 766,000 tons, the highest level in four months. At the same time, soybean oil imports will be significantly reduced by 45% to 280,000 tons, the lowest level since June 2024, and sunflower oil imports may decline by 23% to 269,000 tons. Due to the decline in soybean oil and sunflower oil imports, the total edible oil imports in India in January decreased by 3.5% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons. Recently, the international price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been rising, and the palm oil origin quotes are frequent, with an overall stable - to - decreasing trend. The cost - performance of palm oil is relatively good, and there are rumors that India has made near - month palm oil purchases this week [13]. 3. Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of January 30, 2026 (Week 5), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 701,400 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons or 5.51% from the previous week. The palm oil inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotes are stable - to - decreasing, and the import profit on the futures market is inverted by about 170. There are rumors of near - month and far - month purchases this week. The basis is running stably with a weak trend, and downstream buyers purchase on demand. Attention should be paid to future domestic purchases and arrivals. In the short term, after a rapid rise, the palm oil futures market is facing profit - taking due to the approaching holiday and a lack of continuous positive factors, and the price has declined. Fundamentally, the high inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to result in a slow inventory reduction in the future. However, the inventory in Indonesia is low. Indonesia will increase the Levy tax in March, and the export tax may be increased by one level, which provides some cost support for palm oil. Overall, the short - term futures market will maintain a volatile operation, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [16]. - Soybean Oil: As of January 30, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 946,800 tons, a decrease of 9,200 tons or 0.96% from the previous week. Currently, the soybean oil inventory is continuously decreasing slightly, but it is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis is running stably. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.484 million tons, and the operating rate was 68.33%, an increase from the previous week. The U.S. Treasury Department issued the proposed rules for the 45Z tax credit this week, which will be subject to a 60 - day public comment period, and a hearing will be held on May 28. The new rules set the raw materials for biofuel production in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, and cancel the indirect land - use change penalty, which is beneficial to the demand for U.S. domestic soybean oil in biodiesel. In addition, after the rumored phone call between Chinese and U.S. leaders on Wednesday, the futures prices of U.S. soybeans and U.S. soybean oil fluctuated and rose. Overall, soybean oil is still supported by the positive outlook of U.S. biodiesel policy, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is continuously decreasing slightly. However, the overall inventory is not in short supply, and there is limited room for the futures price to rise or fall [21]. - Rapeseed Oil: As of January 30, 2026, the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in coastal areas was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week. As of January 30, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 242,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week, at a relatively neutral level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. This week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major oil mills in coastal areas was 10,000 tons, and the operating rate was 2.67%, an increase from the previous week. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1,030, and the import profit of European rapeseed oil is inverted and has expanded to around - 1,300. There are rumors of domestic rapeseed oil purchases this week. In addition, there are rumors in the market this week that the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed may be implemented, and domestic enterprises can import Canadian rapeseed. There have been many purchases of Canadian rapeseed in the country this week, which has caused the rapeseed oil price to decline. However, in the short term, the supply of available rapeseed oil in the domestic market is tight, which supports the near - month basis. Overall, there have been many purchases of Canadian rapeseed recently, and there may be some supply pressure in the far - month. However, in the short term, rapeseed oil maintains a small - scale inventory reduction rhythm, and the tight supply of actual available inventory supports the near - month basis. The previous high import cost also provides some support for the rapeseed oil price. Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil is still affected by policy factors, and attention should be paid to changes in rapeseed import policies [24]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral Strategy: In the short term, the overall oil and fat market may continue to maintain a wide - range volatile operation, and there is no trending market for the time being. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. - Arbitrage Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage on P59 and y59 at high prices. - Options Strategy: Wait and see [29]. II. Week - to - Week Data Tracking - Malaysia: Monthly production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian crude palm oil are provided [32]. - Indonesia: Monthly production, export, and inventory data of Indonesian palm oil are provided [36]. - International Soybean Oil Market: Data on NOPA's U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazil's soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazil's soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentina's soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentina's soybean oil inventory are provided [42]. - India's Oil and Fat Supply and Demand: Data on India's edible oil monthly consumption, import, port inventory, as well as monthly imports of palm oil, sunflower oil, and soybean oil are provided [48][50][53]. - Domestic Market: Data on domestic rapeseed oil import profit, 24 - degree palm oil import profit, soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, soybean oil weekly trading volume, palm oil monthly import volume, palm oil monthly sales volume, palm oil weekly trading volume, domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, domestic rapeseed oil import volume, domestic rapeseed oil monthly consumption, domestic oil and fat spot basis, and domestic oil and fat commercial inventory are provided [59][62][63][65][67][73][75].