合成橡胶投资周报：节前成交转弱，BR震荡下行-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints -节前 trading volume weakened, and the fundamentals of butadiene rubber (BR) are becoming more relaxed. In the short term, there will be a phased correction, but in the medium to long term, there are still expectations for butadiene exports and overseas capacity clearance. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices after the Spring Festival [3] Summary by Directory Market Review - As of February 5, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 13,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 13,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton. Due to the expected decline in downstream demand for butadiene and the expected increase in domestic supply, the high production cost pressure of BR has been slightly relieved. The production capacity utilization rate of BR has recovered to a high level. Before the Spring Festival, the futures price of synthetic rubber dropped significantly, and the market bearish sentiment increased slightly [4] Price Tables - China's BR9000 Ex - factory and Market Prices: On February 6, 2026, most ex - factory prices of BR9000 decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to February 5, with a decline of 1.54%. Some market prices increased slightly, with an increase of 0.39% - 1.22% [7] - China's Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain Prices: The prices of butadiene, BR, and styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) showed different degrees of changes. For example, the ex - factory price of butadiene from Dalian Hengli decreased by 200 yuan/ton on February 6 compared to February 5, with a decline of 1.92% [8] Correlation Analysis - The price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties have certain correlations. For example, the correlation coefficient between BR and butadiene is 0.90 in the 1 - month period, indicating a strong positive correlation [9] Device Conditions - Butadiene Devices: Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical have been shut down, while some devices like Sinochem Quanzhou and Hainan Refining have restarted, affecting the weekly output [3][10] - High - cis BR Devices: Most BR devices are operating normally, but some have maintenance plans in different quarters [11] Spread and Basis Analysis - BR Spread: The RU - BR spread is 3290 yuan/ton, and the NR - BR spread is 260 yuan/ton. The BR - SC ratio is - 0.34% [3] - BR Basis: The basis of BR in North China is - 440 yuan/ton, in East China is - 340 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 390 yuan/ton [3] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The supply of butadiene and BR is expected to increase. The production capacity utilization rate of BR has reached a high level [3] - Demand: The demand for semi - steel tires and all - steel tires is weak. The inventory consumption is slow, and the downstream procurement intention is mostly postponed to after the Spring Festival [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene and BR has decreased. The overall inventory of butadiene shows no obvious signs of pressure, and the inventory of BR production and trading enterprises has decreased [3] Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment Viewpoint: The market is expected to be volatile. In the short term, there will be a phased correction, but in the long term, there are opportunities to go long at low prices after the Spring Festival [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, the main idea is to go long at low prices and grasp the market and capital rhythm. For arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR/RU. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [3]