节后债市或延续节前趋势1.8%或由阻力变支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market after the Spring Festival is likely to continue the pre - festival trend, and holding bonds during the holiday may be a better choice. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the risk of significant interest rate adjustments is relatively limited [3][4][14]. - Once the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate breaks through 1.8%, it may change from a resistance level to a support level [5][14][44]. - The short - term bond market will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage. There is still room for compression in the spread of 3 - 5 - year Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. If the interest rate breaks through key points, there may be band opportunities for 10 - year policy financial bonds and ultra - long Treasury bonds [5][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Post - Festival Bond Market Generally Continues the Pre - Festival Trend; Pre - positioned Monetary Policy and Holding Bonds During the Holiday May Still Be the Better Choice - Historically, the bond market after the Spring Festival generally continues the pre - festival trend. In odd - numbered years, interest rates tend to rise around the Spring Festival, while in even - numbered years, they often fall. The exception was 2022, when the central bank cut interest rates before the festival, and interest rates rose after the festival due to profit - taking sentiment and concerns about credit [3][15][20]. - The adjustment of the monetary policy tone since January may be the reason for the bond market's recovery. The central bank's increased demand for stable credit and reduced concerns about the side effects of M2 and social financing growth have led to a repair of bond market sentiment. The State Council Executive Meeting on February 6 proposed that macro - policies should be implemented ahead of schedule, and subsequent monetary policy may continue to be pre - positioned, with the possibility of earlier reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [22][28][29]. 3.2 The Central Bank Creates a Suitable Monetary and Financial Environment for Government Bond Issuance; Once 1.8% Is Broken, It May Change from a Resistance to a Support - Despite the large net payment scale of government bonds in the week before the festival, the central bank's actions such as over - renewing the 3M repurchase and large - scale 14 - day reverse repurchase injections reflect its intention to maintain liquidity. As long as the central bank's attitude remains unchanged, the capital market around the Spring Festival is expected to remain loose [30]. - The net financing of certificates of deposit (CDs) turned positive last week, mainly due to the decline in maturity volume. If the central bank continues to maintain stable funds, the bank's liability pressure after the festival is expected to be stable [33]. - In January, the central bank's bond purchase scale increased, and large - scale banks' net purchases of Treasury bonds in the secondary market reached a record high. They can be regarded as the stabilizing force when the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is above 1.8%. If the interest rate breaks through 1.8%, it may change from a resistance to a support [39][41][44].