格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260209

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core View - The supply and demand of steel products have both declined this period. As the holiday approaches, downstream demand is gradually decreasing, and the market is basically in a semi-stagnant state. Inventory continues to increase, the winter storage intensity is weak, and the winter storage price is 3050 - 3150 yuan with a post-settlement model. The market is mostly cautious and wait-and-see about the future, and the expectation of post-holiday recovery is weak [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed up, and closed down at night [1] Important Information - China Machinery Industry Federation expects the growth rate of the main indicators of the machinery industry to be around 5.5% in 2026 [1] - The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in January was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The China Construction Machinery Industry Association reported that the operating rate of excavators in China in January 2026 was 48.6% [1] - Six cities in Hebei (Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Baoding, Langfang, Hengshui, and Cangzhou) launched a level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on February 8 [1] Market Logic - The supply and demand of steel products have both declined, downstream demand is decreasing, the market is semi-stagnant, inventory is increasing, winter storage is weak, and the post-holiday recovery expectation is weak [1] Trading Strategy - 3050 for rebar remains a strong support. As the holiday approaches, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [1]